Orleans: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Ugo Blanchet

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Buvaysar Gadamauri (42%) · Buvaysar Gadamauri at 62¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 17

Buvaysar Gadamauri62¢Ugo Blanchet38¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Consensus Traders

Buvaysar Gadamauri 42%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.5K

Combined PnL

-$355.92

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 61.5¢

+46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuvaysar Gadamauri at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buvaysar Gadamauri

5 of 12 top traders (42%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buvaysar Gadamauri62%

Ugo Blanchet39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buvaysar Gadamauri5 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares19,091

Combined PnL+$424.26

Ugo Blanchet7 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares11,408

Combined PnL-$780.17

Buvaysar Gadamauri — 42%Ugo Blanchet — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 53.8¢	$5.4K	$6.0K	+$596.15	46% 33770-39445 (73215)
└ Ugo Blanchet leg	Ugo Blanchetavg 53.8¢	$4.7K	$4.1K	-$690.94
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 18.8¢	$689.61	$2.0K	+$1.3K
FL Flaznorp	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 40.8¢	$3.4K	$3.9K	+$464.16	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
AC Accomplished-Framework	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 52.5¢	$3.5K	$2.4K	$-1.1K	46% 299-349 (648)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 44.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$74.2	47% 2263-2572 (4835)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 63¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$15.87	55% 844-698 (1542)
TH thestingsnake	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 31.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$599.61	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
TRCM	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 33.1¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$136.98	55% 4138-3332 (7470)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 31.5¢	$794.4	$1.3K	+$487.32	50% 66257-66785 (133042)
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 31.5¢	$543.54	$933.03	+$389.5
└ Ugo Blanchet leg	Ugo Blanchetavg 33.1¢	$250.86	$348.68	+$97.82
SU suitcase6628CTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 69.1¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$165.81	57% 212-163 (375)
dips.CTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 83.6¢	$1.7K	$958.86	-$763.6	48% 17808-19532 (37340)
SC SchruteBucksARB<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 72¢	$766.07	$258.14	-$284.44	56% 1993-1542 (3535)
└ Ugo Blanchet leg	Ugo Blanchetavg 72¢	$170.71	$150.5	-$20.21
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 33.1¢	$97.54	$107.64	-$264.23
SH shiifooCTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 34¢	$170	$230	+$60	47% 5211-5761 (10972)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 46.5¢	$169.04	$187.81	+$18.77	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 46.5¢	$101.8	$118.26	+$16.46
└ Ugo Blanchet leg	Ugo Blanchetavg 44.5¢	$67.24	$69.55	+$2.31
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 38.8¢	$836.54	$150.52	+$43.25	53% 28354-25627 (53981)
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 38.8¢	$81.32	$113.19	+$65.71
└ Ugo Blanchet leg	Ugo Blanchetavg 61.9¢	$50.19	$37.33	-$22.46
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 54¢	$106.25	$90.56	-$15.69	50% 24122-24229 (48351)
FL flatbarrel	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 28.2¢	$525.19	$36.03	+$290.35	58% 2818-2024 (4842)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 13¢	$5.85	$20.7	+$14.85	14% 9531-61028 (70559)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$5,433.23

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$596.15

Record

46%

33770-39445 (73215)

Both legs:

Ugo Blanchet$4,743.6253.8¢-$690.94

Buvaysar Gadamauri$689.6118.8¢+$1.3K

Flaznorp

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$3,415.4

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$464.16

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

Accomplished-Framework

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$3,501.67

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

46%

299-349 (648)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,955.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$74.2

Record

47%

2263-2572 (4835)

pltrkr111CTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$15.87

Record

55%

844-698 (1542)

thestingsnake

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$1,478.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$599.61

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

TRCM

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$1,323.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$136.98

Record

55%

4138-3332 (7470)

cigarettesARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$794.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$487.32

Record

50%

66257-66785 (133042)

Both legs:

Buvaysar Gadamauri$543.5431.5¢+$389.5

Ugo Blanchet$250.8633.1¢+$97.82

suitcase6628CTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,294.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$165.81

Record

57%

212-163 (375)

dips.CTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,722.46

Value

$958.86

PnL

-$763.6

Record

48%

17808-19532 (37340)

SchruteBucksARB<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$766.07

Value

$258.14

PnL

-$284.44

Record

56%

1993-1542 (3535)

Both legs:

Ugo Blanchet$170.7172¢-$20.21

Buvaysar Gadamauri$97.5433.1¢-$264.23

shiifooCTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$170

Value

$230

PnL

+$60

Record

47%

5211-5761 (10972)

EulhunterARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$169.04

Value

$187.81

PnL

+$18.77

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

Both legs:

Buvaysar Gadamauri$101.846.5¢+$16.46

Ugo Blanchet$67.2444.5¢+$2.31

Pan9XARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$836.54

Value

$150.52

PnL

+$43.25

Record

53%

28354-25627 (53981)

Both legs:

Buvaysar Gadamauri$81.3238.8¢+$65.71

Ugo Blanchet$50.1961.9¢-$22.46

omnibus-076daaCTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$106.25

Value

$90.56

PnL

-$15.69

Record

50%

24122-24229 (48351)

flatbarrel

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$525.19

Value

$36.03

PnL

+$290.35

Record

58%

2818-2024 (4842)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$5.85

Value

$20.7

PnL

+$14.85

Record

14%

9531-61028 (70559)

Research grade

NeutralBuvaysar Gadamauri at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Buvaysar Gadamauri

5 of 12 top traders (42%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buvaysar Gadamauri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.