BNP Paribas Nordic Open: James Duckworth vs Cameron Norrie

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Cameron Norrie (87%) · Cameron Norrie at 69¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 16

James Duckworth32¢Cameron Norrie68¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cameron Norrie

Consensus Traders

Cameron Norrie 87%

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

-$86.09

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 68.5¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralCameron Norrie at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cameron Norrie

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

James Duckworth32%

Cameron Norrie69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cameron Norrie13 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares21,319

Combined PnL-$73.79

James Duckworth2 traders

Total Value$572.16

Total Shares1,780

Combined PnL-$12.3

Cameron Norrie — 87%James Duckworth — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Cameron Norrieavg 67.2¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$16.17	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
38 38791873984189	Cameron Norrieavg 66.8¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	+$31.84	48% 72152-77872 (150024)
VeryLucky888	Cameron Norrieavg 68.9¢	$3.7K	$1.9K	+$10.5	58% 53770-38280 (92050)
K5 k56	Cameron Norrieavg 71¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$33.21	57% 909-677 (1586)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Cameron Norrieavg 70.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$51.39	51% 2350-2286 (4636)
0xheavy888	Cameron Norrieavg 69¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$30	56% 9019-7114 (16133)
VI vibing123	Cameron Norrieavg 68.1¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$32.25	51% 1783-1683 (3466)
RN1CTR	James Duckworthavg 33¢	$482.46	$475.15	-$7.31	53% 72012-63509 (135521)
EF efntrick	Cameron Norrieavg 67.1¢	$302	$312.75	+$10.75	49% 3734-3959 (7693)
PA Pan9X	Cameron Norrieavg 66.9¢	$191.41	$159.3	+$2.39	53% 28354-25627 (53981)
DA darkumbreon88	Cameron Norrieavg 69¢	$151.52	$152.62	+$1.1	65% 2215-1212 (3427)
LI LightParadoxCTR	James Duckworthavg 32.1¢	$102	$97.01	-$4.99	45% 2662-3199 (5861)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 67.3¢	$66	$66.23	+$0.23	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.47	+$0.07	53% 14833-13045 (27878)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.38	+$0.02	57% 20332-15125 (35457)

Flaznorp

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$3,624.11

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$16.17

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

38791873984189

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$2,874.24

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$31.84

Record

48%

72152-77872 (150024)

VeryLucky888

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$3,700.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$10.5

Record

58%

53770-38280 (92050)

k56

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,522.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$33.21

Record

57%

909-677 (1586)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,401.39

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$51.39

Record

51%

2350-2286 (4636)

0xheavy888

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,380

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$30

Record

56%

9019-7114 (16133)

vibing123

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,368.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$32.25

Record

51%

1783-1683 (3466)

RN1CTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$482.46

Value

$475.15

PnL

-$7.31

Record

53%

72012-63509 (135521)

efntrick

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$302

Value

$312.75

PnL

+$10.75

Record

49%

3734-3959 (7693)

Pan9X

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$191.41

Value

$159.3

PnL

+$2.39

Record

53%

28354-25627 (53981)

darkumbreon88

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$151.52

Value

$152.62

PnL

+$1.1

Record

65%

2215-1212 (3427)

LightParadoxCTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$102

Value

$97.01

PnL

-$4.99

Record

45%

2662-3199 (5861)

Eulhunter<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$66

Value

$66.23

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

14833-13045 (27878)

BillBenter2026<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

Research grade

NeutralCameron Norrie at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cameron Norrie

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cameron Norrie wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.