Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Edas Butvilas, while the market favors Cosme Rolland De Ravel (71%). 5 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Orleans: Edas Butvilas vs Cosme Rolland De Ravel
5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Edas Butvilas (31%) · Edas Butvilas at 29¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Edas Butvilas
16
Edas Butvilas 31%
$8.6K
-$37.25
57.4¢ → 29¢
-49% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidEdas Butvilas at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 16 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Cosme Rolland De Ravel 71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL OleocanthalCTR | Edas Butvilasavg 57.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$54.81 | 51% 28-27 (55) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Edas Butvilasavg 58.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$66.85 | 49% 591-612 (1203) |
 VeryLucky888 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 40.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$101.77 | 58% 53770-38280 (92050) |
38 38791873984189 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 43.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$445.86 | 48% 72152-77872 (150024) |
VI vibing123CTR | Edas Butvilasavg 56.9¢ | $1.1K | $537.35 | -$573.77 | 51% 1783-1683 (3466) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 75¢ | $423.14 | $403.58 | -$19.56 | 46% 33770-39445 (73215) |
TH thestingsnake | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 64.3¢ | $249.66 | $269.66 | +$20 | 60% 4654-3141 (7795) |
FL Flaznorp | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 44¢ | $168.56 | $248.35 | +$79.79 | 52% 49472-46424 (95896) |
EF efntrick | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 44.7¢ | $113.24 | $131.3 | +$51.66 | 49% 3734-3959 (7693) |
TH thirdt1me | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 58.5¢ | $236.8 | $119.7 | -$4.59 | 57% 224-169 (393) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 69.5¢ | $118.5 | $107.67 | -$10.83 | 50% 24122-24229 (48351) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 69.3¢ | $38.48 | $34.59 | -$3.89 | 54% 10539-8942 (19481) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Edas Butvilasavg 37.5¢ | $21.9 | $19.28 | -$2.63 | 52% 6198-5720 (11918) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $13.8 | +$4.2 | 53% 6834-5983 (12817) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Edas Butvilasavg 46.2¢ | $8.67 | $5.34 | -$3.66 | 55% 4138-3332 (7470) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 48.2¢ | $3.77 | $3.44 | +$0.04 | 45% 2738-3312 (6050) |
Invested
$2,550
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$54.81
Record
51%
28-27 (55)
Invested
$1,751.51
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$66.85
Record
49%
591-612 (1203)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,188.7
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$101.77
Record
58%
53770-38280 (92050)
Invested
$1,180.56
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$445.86
Record
48%
72152-77872 (150024)
Invested
$1,111.12
Value
$537.35
PnL
-$573.77
Record
51%
1783-1683 (3466)
Invested
$423.14
Value
$403.58
PnL
-$19.56
Record
46%
33770-39445 (73215)
Invested
$249.66
Value
$269.66
PnL
+$20
Record
60%
4654-3141 (7795)
Invested
$168.56
Value
$248.35
PnL
+$79.79
Record
52%
49472-46424 (95896)
Invested
$113.24
Value
$131.3
PnL
+$51.66
Record
49%
3734-3959 (7693)
Invested
$236.8
Value
$119.7
PnL
-$4.59
Record
57%
224-169 (393)
Invested
$118.5
Value
$107.67
PnL
-$10.83
Record
50%
24122-24229 (48351)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$38.48
Value
$34.59
PnL
-$3.89
Record
54%
10539-8942 (19481)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$19.28
PnL
-$2.63
Record
52%
6198-5720 (11918)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$13.8
PnL
+$4.2
Record
53%
6834-5983 (12817)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$8.67
Value
$5.34
PnL
-$3.66
Record
55%
4138-3332 (7470)
Invested
$3.77
Value
$3.44
PnL
+$0.04
Record
45%
2738-3312 (6050)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Oleocanthal
CTREdas Butvilas — $2.5K
0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816
CTREdas Butvilas — $1.7K
VeryLucky888
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $1.3K
38791873984189
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $1.2K
vibing123
CTREdas Butvilas — $537.35
ferrariChampions2026
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $403.58
thestingsnake
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $269.66
Flaznorp
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $248.35
efntrick
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $131.3
thirdt1me
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $119.7