Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpPondermintprimm
Record (consensus markets)45% (573–710, n=1283)52% (6450–5961, n=12411)67% (421–204, n=625)50% (1106–1117, n=2223)
Consensus PnL$9.4M$3.3M$174K$3.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #3PM monthly #24PM monthly #381PM monthly #46
Sides with the consensus68% (23 of 34 open)74% (143 of 192 open)44% (4 of 9 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22MLB −2 pts, n=87—
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%71% of 485 at avg 71¢, ROI +2%99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 423)13% (won 11% of 63)5% (won 94% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 243)11% (won 35% of 52)41% (won 99% of 405)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)17% (won 62% of 255)12% (won 63% of 56)49% (won 99% of 485)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)38% (won 94% of 561)65% (won 90% of 314)5% (won 100% of 46)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankFlaznorpPondermintprimm
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $81K—Yes $2.5K—