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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935fantasy7788Flaznorp
Record (consensus markets)57% (28–21, n=49)92% (11–1, n=12)50% (9–9, n=18)74% (1443–503, n=1946)
Consensus PnL$758K$5.8K$435K$298K
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #885PM monthly #37PM monthly #45
Sides with the consensus52% (12 of 23 open)83% (30 of 36 open)no open consensus position60% (169 of 282 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +48 pts n=22, ROI +45%
not computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic———College Basketball −3 pts, n=123
Settled positions, side won100% of 31 at avg 52¢, ROI +46%—100% of 10 at avg 48¢, ROI +54%48% of 490 at avg 48¢, ROI 0%
Entries under 30¢0%—10% (won 100% of 1)32% (won 5% of 159)
Entries 30–50¢48% (won 100% of 15)—50% (won 100% of 5)24% (won 43% of 119)
Entries 50–70¢45% (won 100% of 14)—30% (won 100% of 3)14% (won 61% of 70)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 100% of 2)—10% (won 100% of 1)29% (won 95% of 142)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935fantasy7788Flaznorp
Spread: 76ers (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
Raptors $134K——76ers $1.1K
Spread: 76ers (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $110K——76ers $15K
Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $230——76ers $3.1K
Spread: 76ers (-6.5)
same side · consensus 76ers
Raptors $31K——Raptors $67
Spread: 76ers (-10.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $111——Raptors $416