Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankCyclewinFlaznorpgoogleplay
Record (consensus markets)57% (28–21, n=49)no settled market74% (1443–503, n=1946)50% (6–6, n=12)
Consensus PnL$758K—$298K$423K
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #972PM monthly #45PM monthly #17
Sides with the consensus52% (12 of 23 open)no open consensus position60% (169 of 282 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NBA +48 pts n=22, ROI +45%
not computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——College Basketball −3 pts, n=123—
Settled positions, side won100% of 31 at avg 52¢, ROI +46%—48% of 490 at avg 48¢, ROI 0%100% of 6 at avg 51¢, ROI +49%
Entries under 30¢0%—32% (won 5% of 159)0%
Entries 30–50¢48% (won 100% of 15)—24% (won 43% of 119)17% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢45% (won 100% of 14)—14% (won 61% of 70)83% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 100% of 2)—29% (won 95% of 142)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankCyclewinFlaznorpgoogleplay
Spread: 76ers (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
Raptors $134K—76ers $1.1K—
Spread: 76ers (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $110K—76ers $11K—
Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $230—76ers $3.1K—
Spread: 76ers (-6.5)
same side · consensus 76ers
Raptors $31K—Raptors $46—
Spread: 76ers (-10.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $111—Raptors $545—