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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
AlphaBetaGamma2357ndb1primmUpTheBlues
Record (consensus markets)51% (435–420, n=855)63% (993–578, n=1571)49% (1129–1155, n=2284)50% (20622–20404, n=41026)
Consensus PnL$94K$4.8M$3.6M$3.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #609PM monthly #97PM monthly #50PM monthly #8
Sides with the consensus50% (11 of 22 open)70% (55 of 79 open)75% (3 of 4 open)70% (31 of 44 open)
Strongest topics
  • MLB +59 pts n=924, ROI +58%
  • Esports +62 pts n=67, ROI +63%
  • MMA +63 pts n=36, ROI +63%
Weakest topicMLB −18 pts, n=23NFL −8 pts, n=147——
Settled positions, side won49% of 840 at avg 49¢, ROI +4%64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2%99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%100% of 39731 at avg 67¢, ROI +36%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 16% of 141)13% (won 14% of 187)5% (won 94% of 51)7% (won 99% of 2699)
Entries 30–50¢40% (won 39% of 339)19% (won 39% of 269)41% (won 99% of 421)20% (won 100% of 7974)
Entries 50–70¢24% (won 59% of 203)23% (won 57% of 328)49% (won 99% of 508)22% (won 100% of 8588)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 87% of 157)44% (won 94% of 622)5% (won 100% of 47)52% (won 100% of 20470)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketAlphaBetaGamma2357ndb1primmUpTheBlues
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $14KNo $84K——