Consensus PnL $73K · win rate 53% (409–358, n=767) · PM monthly #746 · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$73.0K
Record
409W / 358L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 767 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1649
Source
PM monthly #746
Record (90 d)
212/467 · 45%
Trades
0
Markets
827
Volume
$1.5M
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Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 32 on the consensus side (53%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $26K · now 77¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (82% of 148)
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?No $14K · now 98¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (67% of 16)
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No $6.8K · now 85¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (56% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.4K · now 91¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (64% of 44)
- Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?No $4.4K · now 32¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No $4.4K · now 22¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No $2.9K · now 75¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (50% of 32)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?Yes $2.5K · now 34¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (40% of 44)
Specialties
766 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 50¢- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 54% of 504 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +4%
- Elections
+22 pts
side won 69% of 13 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +30%
- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 76% of 29 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +22%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 30% of 23 at an average 48¢ entry (−18 pts against the price), ROI −18%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 20% of 113)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 40% of 309)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 60% of 192)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 86% of 152)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.