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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
76marshBreakTheBankFlaznorp
Record (consensus markets)82% (23–5, n=28)45% (576–717, n=1293)52% (6475–6058, n=12533)
Consensus PnL$34K$7.3M$3.7M
Tracked asPM monthly #630PM monthly #3PM monthly #13
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position76% (28 of 37 open)71% (254 of 359 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=100, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic——Other Sports −13 pts, n=22
Settled positions, side won100% of 23 at avg 63¢, ROI +44%97% of 586 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%
Entries under 30¢0%10% (won 82% of 60)29% (won 11% of 465)
Entries 30–50¢30% (won 100% of 7)35% (won 98% of 206)16% (won 40% of 255)
Entries 50–70¢30% (won 100% of 7)35% (won 100% of 204)16% (won 62% of 260)
Entries 70¢ and up39% (won 100% of 9)20% (won 100% of 116)39% (won 94% of 637)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market76marshBreakTheBankFlaznorp
Thunder vs. Grizzlies
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
—Grizzlies $148KThunder $14K
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Timberwolves
—Timberwolves $367Pelicans $1.8K
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
—Raptors $450Bucks $464
Raptors vs. Bucks
same side · consensus Raptors
—Raptors $510KRaptors $8.7K
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)
same side · consensus Thunder
—Grizzlies $14KGrizzlies $760
Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)
same side · consensus Mavericks
—Jazz $422Jazz $234
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
same side · consensus Pelicans
—Timberwolves $167Timberwolves $369
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
same side · consensus Grizzlies
—Grizzlies $50Grizzlies $350
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
same side · consensus Bucks
—Raptors $122Raptors $154