Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ferrariChampions2026BreakTheBankMalfunction.RN1
Record (consensus markets)35% (3648–6671, n=10319)45% (573–710, n=1283)98% (12040–295, n=12335)47% (14126–15613, n=29739)
Consensus PnL$3.0M$7.9M$639K$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #621PM monthly #3PM monthly #261PM monthly #28 + pinned
Sides with the consensus81% (13 of 16 open)66% (19 of 29 open)100% (1 of 1 open)55% (17 of 31 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topic——Geopolitics −6 pts, n=15—
Settled positions, side won—97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%96% of 11110 at avg 96¢, ROI 0%94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢—11% (won 80% of 61)2% (won 19% of 221)10% (won 57% of 2538)
Entries 30–50¢—35% (won 98% of 203)2% (won 50% of 203)22% (won 94% of 5565)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 100% of 201)1% (won 57% of 165)36% (won 99% of 9017)
Entries 70¢ and up—20% (won 100% of 115)95% (won 99% of 10521)33% (won 100% of 8250)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketferrariChampions2026BreakTheBankMalfunction.RN1
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $2.3K——Over $1.5K
Rolex Paris Masters: Rinky Hijikata vs Tomas Etcheverry
same side · consensus Rinky Hijikata
Tomas Etcheverry $17K——Tomas Etcheverry $20K
Bratislava 2: Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel
same side · consensus Jurij Rodionov
Jurij Rodionov $13K——Jurij Rodionov $8.2K
Taranto: Philip Henning vs Carlo Alberto Caniato
same side · consensus Philip Henning
Philip Henning $4.7K——Philip Henning $3.7K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $1.2K——Over $360