Consensus PnL $624K · win rate 98% (11401–287, n=11688) · PM monthly #289 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$624.2K
Record
11401W / 287L
Win Rate
98.0%
of 11688 settled
Batting Avg
88.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#108
Source
PM monthly #289
Record (90 d)
3257/3320 · 98%
Trades
12,623
Markets
12,968
Volume
$425.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $95K · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (73% of 136)
Specialties
10,966 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 96¢- Entertainment
+12 pts
side won 67% of 45 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +19%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 93% of 15 at an average 99¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 19% of 225)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 50% of 204)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 58% of 170)
- 70¢ and up: 95%(won 99% of 10367)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.