Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rinky Hijikata, while the market favors Tomas Etcheverry (56%). 15 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rolex Paris Masters: Rinky Hijikata vs Tomas Etcheverry

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Rinky Hijikata (88%) · Rinky Hijikata at 45¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Rinky Hijikata45¢Tomas Etcheverry55¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Rinky Hijikata

Consensus Traders

Rinky Hijikata 88%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$26.63

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 44.5¢

+0% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

Research candidateRinky Hijikata at 45%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rinky Hijikata

15 of 17 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Tomas Etcheverry 56%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rinky Hijikata45%

Tomas Etcheverry56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Etcheverry2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,704

Combined PnL+$31.02

Rinky Hijikata15 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares11,153

Combined PnL-$4.39

Tomas Etcheverry — 12%Rinky Hijikata — 88%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Rinky Hijikata. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRinky Hijikata 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpRinky Hijikata 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrRinky Hijikata 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedRinky Hijikata 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rinky Hijikata 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Tomas Etcheverryavg 55¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$22.37	55% 3718-3049 (6767)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 44¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$23.18	69% 7197-3179 (10376)
VeryLucky888CTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	58% 46330-33448 (79778)
NM NM-PCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 44¢	$374	$374	+$0	64% 9844-5498 (15342)
GC GC-PCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 44¢	$374	$374	+$0	64% 9878-5564 (15442)
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72feCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 46¢	$225.47	$215.75	-$9.73	51% 218-212 (430)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 46.2¢	$201.03	$191.3	-$2.17	45% 417-504 (921)
38 38791873984189	Tomas Etcheverryavg 52¢	$249.33	$133.06	+$8.65	48% 60760-65418 (126178)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 45.2¢	$105.62	$102.74	-$2.88	50% 1301-1287 (2588)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 46.2¢	$100.52	$96.74	-$3.78	46% 912-1089 (2001)
VE VenusianCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 48¢	$184.5	$82.1	-$6.41	51% 1362-1323 (2685)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR<$100	Rinky Hijikataavg 46.2¢	$50.26	$47.82	-$2.43	48% 572-628 (1200)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Rinky Hijikataavg 44¢	$39.6	$39.6	+$0	56% 7879-6308 (14187)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rinky Hijikataavg 45¢	$31.64	$14.08	-$0.16	49% 4465-4662 (9127)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Rinky Hijikataavg 44¢	$7.84	$7.84	+$0	54% 2564-2224 (4788)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Rinky Hijikataavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.2	+$0	52% 8742-7954 (16696)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Rinky Hijikataavg 45¢	$3.64	$1.62	-$0.02	61% 14179-9156 (23335)

JAMJAMJAM4

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$2,460.6

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$22.37

Record

55%

3718-3049 (6767)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$2,039.68

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$23.18

Record

69%

7197-3179 (10376)

VeryLucky888CTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$1,320

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

46330-33448 (79778)

NM-PCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$374

Value

$374

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

9844-5498 (15342)

GC-PCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$374

Value

$374

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

9878-5564 (15442)

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72feCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$225.47

Value

$215.75

PnL

-$9.73

Record

51%

218-212 (430)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$201.03

Value

$191.3

PnL

-$2.17

Record

45%

417-504 (921)

38791873984189

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$249.33

Value

$133.06

PnL

+$8.65

Record

48%

60760-65418 (126178)

MadridTimeCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$105.62

Value

$102.74

PnL

-$2.88

Record

50%

1301-1287 (2588)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$100.52

Value

$96.74

PnL

-$3.78

Record

46%

912-1089 (2001)

VenusianCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$184.5

Value

$82.1

PnL

-$6.41

Record

51%

1362-1323 (2685)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR<$100

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$50.26

Value

$47.82

PnL

-$2.43

Record

48%

572-628 (1200)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$39.6

Value

$39.6

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

7879-6308 (14187)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$31.64

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

4465-4662 (9127)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$7.84

Value

$7.84

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2564-2224 (4788)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

8742-7954 (16696)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$3.64

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.02

Record

61%

14179-9156 (23335)

Research grade

Research candidateRinky Hijikata at 45%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rinky Hijikata

15 of 17 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Tomas Etcheverry 56%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Rinky Hijikata. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRinky Hijikata 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpRinky Hijikata 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrRinky Hijikata 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedRinky Hijikata 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rinky Hijikata 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rinky Hijikata wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.