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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankGetsOnBaseS-Works
Record (consensus markets)55% (4837–4036, n=8873)41% (589–853, n=1442)100% (3–0, n=3)75% (2546–856, n=3402)
Consensus PnL$8.1M$7.6M$80K$3.7M
Tracked asPM monthly #14PM monthly #2PM monthly #170PM monthly #74
Sides with the consensus50% (13 of 26 open)89% (33 of 37 open)0% (0 of 1 open)67% (2 of 3 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +10 pts n=467, ROI +5%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2316, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1408, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=136——Crypto −1 pts, n=46
Settled positions, side won59% of 7152 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%100% of 2 at avg 47¢, ROI +60%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1182)10% (won 82% of 60)0%6% (won 14% of 145)
Entries 30–50¢25% (won 46% of 1753)36% (won 98% of 212)50% (won 100% of 1)16% (won 48% of 367)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2092)35% (won 100% of 205)50% (won 100% of 1)23% (won 60% of 509)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2125)20% (won 100% of 116)0%55% (won 96% of 1235)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankGetsOnBaseS-Works
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.5KYes $22K——
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?
same side · consensus No
No $278KNo $651K——
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
No $25No $39K——
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
No $4.6KNo $2.4K——