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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpISMS2222
Record (consensus markets)58% (4518–3290, n=7808)45% (573–710, n=1283)52% (6492–5998, n=12490)36% (25–44, n=69)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$7.9M$3.3M$165K
Tracked asPM monthly #67PM monthly #3PM monthly #24PM monthly #676
Sides with the consensus68% (13 of 19 open)76% (26 of 34 open)72% (174 of 241 open)75% (3 of 4 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22NFL −15 pts, n=16
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%44% of 55 at avg 41¢, ROI +7%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 423)38% (won 33% of 21)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 243)24% (won 15% of 13)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)17% (won 62% of 255)29% (won 63% of 16)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)38% (won 94% of 561)9% (won 100% of 5)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpISMS2222
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.4KYes $78K——
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $76K—Yes $34K
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
No $56No $90K——
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
same side · consensus No
Yes $5.8K—Yes $2.6K—
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
No $4.5KNo $1.0K——