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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Better-ManBreakTheBankprimm
Record (consensus markets)55% (17–14, n=31)no settled market95% (310–15, n=325)75% (9–3, n=12)
Consensus PnL-$239K—$8.4M$84K
Tracked asPM monthly #9was PM monthly #633PM monthly #1PM monthly #40
Sides with the consensus56% (14 of 25 open)92% (33 of 36 open)84% (32 of 38 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NBA +10 pts n=467, ROI +5%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2316, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1408, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=136Elections −4 pts, n=101——
Settled positions, side won59% of 7152 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%66% of 438 at avg 62¢, ROI +2%97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%99% of 1269 at avg 51¢, ROI +50%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1182)29% (won 9% of 126)10% (won 82% of 60)5% (won 95% of 59)
Entries 30–50¢25% (won 46% of 1753)6% (won 23% of 26)36% (won 98% of 212)40% (won 99% of 512)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2092)8% (won 82% of 34)35% (won 100% of 205)50% (won 100% of 633)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2125)58% (won 97% of 252)20% (won 100% of 116)5% (won 100% of 65)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Better-ManBreakTheBankprimm
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.5K—Yes $30K—
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $4.7KYes $69K—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
No $26—No $41K—
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
No $4.5K—No $2.4K—