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PolyConsensus
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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0805260x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ndb1RN1
Record (consensus markets)85% (44–8, n=52)58% (4539–3322, n=7861)63% (993–576, n=1569)48% (14234–15729, n=29963)
Consensus PnL$23K$7.8M$4.8M$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #777PM monthly #19PM monthly #97PM monthly #30 + pinned
Sides with the consensus86% (36 of 42 open)55% (11 of 20 open)69% (52 of 75 open)50% (13 of 26 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=459, ROI +5%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2301, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1407, ROI +4%
Weakest topic—NHL −1 pts, n=136NFL −9 pts, n=139—
Settled positions, side won100% of 41 at avg 73¢, ROI +24%59% of 7119 at avg 55¢, ROI +1%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%94% of 25975 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢0%17% (won 11% of 1182)13% (won 15% of 168)10% (won 57% of 2593)
Entries 30–50¢5% (won 100% of 2)24% (won 45% of 1743)20% (won 39% of 256)22% (won 94% of 5682)
Entries 50–70¢41% (won 100% of 17)29% (won 66% of 2080)24% (won 58% of 314)35% (won 99% of 9181)
Entries 70¢ and up54% (won 100% of 22)30% (won 91% of 2114)43% (won 93% of 550)33% (won 100% of 8519)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0805260x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ndb1RN1
Chennai Open: Janice Tjen vs Polina Kudermetova
opposite sides · consensus Janice Tjen
—Polina Kudermetova $3.9K—Janice Tjen $14K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $5.6KYes $58——
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $15KYes $53K——