Chennai Open: Janice Tjen vs Polina Kudermetova

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Janice Tjen (42%) · Janice Tjen at 65¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Janice Tjen65¢Polina Kudermetova35¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Janice Tjen

Consensus Traders

Janice Tjen 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$83.71

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 64.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJanice Tjen at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Janice Tjen

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Janice Tjen65%

Polina Kudermetova36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Janice Tjen5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,436

Combined PnL-$80.08

Polina Kudermetova7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,401

Combined PnL-$3.63

Janice Tjen — 42%Polina Kudermetova — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Janice Tjenavg 68.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$94.08	59% 143-99 (242)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Polina Kudermetovaavg 35.2¢	$898.15	$893.7	-$4.44	69% 7246-3212 (10458)
DA darkumbreon88	Janice Tjenavg 63¢	$674.21	$684.91	+$10.7	64% 2009-1118 (3127)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Janice Tjenavg 63.5¢	$986.71	$494.43	+$13.68	58% 47020-33905 (80925)
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 63.5¢	$311.84	$316.93	+$11.18
└ Polina Kudermetova leg	Polina Kudermetovaavg 35¢	$175	$177.5	+$2.5
HI hi774cCTR	Polina Kudermetovaavg 35¢	$362.63	$378.17	+$15.54	46% 5252-6094 (11346)
GC GC-PCTR	Polina Kudermetovaavg 35¢	$230.94	$230.94	-$0	64% 10089-5690 (15779)
NM NM-PCTR	Polina Kudermetovaavg 35¢	$230.93	$230.93	-$0	64% 10064-5621 (15685)
VI vibing123	Janice Tjenavg 64.2¢	$206.61	$206.08	+$3.22	52% 1648-1547 (3195)
nigiri99CTR	Polina Kudermetovaavg 40.2¢	$173.17	$150.85	-$15.03	46% 8686-10357 (19043)
PA Pan9X<$100	Janice Tjenavg 64¢	$24.04	$24.04	-$0	54% 10064-8455 (18519)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Polina Kudermetovaavg 35¢	$17.5	$17.75	+$0.25	54% 6299-5361 (11660)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Polina Kudermetovaavg 35¢	$3.85	$3.85	+$0.06	46% 12022-13879 (25901)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Janice Tjenavg 62¢	$3.1	$3.2	+$0.08	52% 8829-8033 (16862)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Janice Tjen

Invested

$1,374.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$94.08

Record

59%

143-99 (242)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$898.15

Value

$893.7

PnL

-$4.44

Record

69%

7246-3212 (10458)

darkumbreon88

Janice Tjen

Invested

$674.21

Value

$684.91

PnL

+$10.7

Record

64%

2009-1118 (3127)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$986.71

Value

$494.43

PnL

+$13.68

Record

58%

47020-33905 (80925)

Both legs:

Janice Tjen$311.8463.5¢+$11.18

Polina Kudermetova$17535¢+$2.5

hi774cCTR

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$362.63

Value

$378.17

PnL

+$15.54

Record

46%

5252-6094 (11346)

GC-PCTR

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$230.94

Value

$230.94

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

10089-5690 (15779)

NM-PCTR

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$230.93

Value

$230.93

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

10064-5621 (15685)

vibing123

Janice Tjen

Invested

$206.61

Value

$206.08

PnL

+$3.22

Record

52%

1648-1547 (3195)

nigiri99CTR

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$173.17

Value

$150.85

PnL

-$15.03

Record

46%

8686-10357 (19043)

Pan9X<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$24.04

Value

$24.04

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

10064-8455 (18519)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$17.5

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

6299-5361 (11660)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

12022-13879 (25901)

ameisgoat11<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

8829-8033 (16862)

Research grade

NeutralJanice Tjen at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Janice Tjen

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Janice Tjen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.