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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241Aurelius7BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)75% (6–2, n=8)56% (101–79, n=180)57% (235–175, n=410)45% (547–663, n=1210)
Consensus PnL$3.5M$3.5M$3.2K$11.0M
Tracked as——was PM monthly #950PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensusno open consensus positionno open consensus position53% (8 of 15 open)64% (43 of 67 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • MLB +46 pts n=20, ROI +49%
  • Esports +35 pts n=28, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +30 pts n=52, ROI +38%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic——Culture −2 pts, n=23—
Settled positions, side won86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42%67% of 388 at avg 49¢, ROI +10%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢0%7% (won 75% of 8)16% (won 16% of 64)10% (won 81% of 57)
Entries 30–50¢0%26% (won 93% of 29)16% (won 40% of 62)36% (won 98% of 201)
Entries 50–70¢100% (won 86% of 7)42% (won 96% of 47)61% (won 84% of 237)35% (won 99% of 196)
Entries 70¢ and up0%24% (won 96% of 27)6% (won 96% of 25)19% (won 100% of 109)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo000x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241Aurelius7BreakTheBank
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $4No $327K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——Yes $93No $28K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $461No $607
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $6Yes $8.1K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
——Yes $6Yes $2.9K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
——No $16No $2.0K