Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$12.1K
$1.5K
99.3¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $5.7K | +$1.4K | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.4¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | -$14.74 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 99.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0.56 | 97% 2573-66 (2639) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.3¢ | $266.15 | $265.88 | -$0.27 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $186.51 | $143.67 | +$20.16 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $36.01 | $61.77 | +$25.76 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
Invested
$4,252.44
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
balthazarInvested
$4,869.72
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$14.74
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
Invested
$1,101
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0.56
Record
97%
2573-66 (2639)
Invested
$266.15
Value
$265.88
PnL
-$0.27
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$186.51
Value
$143.67
PnL
+$20.16
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$36.01
Value
$61.77
PnL
+$25.76
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.