Known as musicenthusiast since Nov 5 2026 · Previously known as: musicenthusiast (Nov 3 – Nov 5 2026)
Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 59% (407–283, n=690) · PM monthly #949 · holds 55 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.9K
Record
407W / 283L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 690 settled
Batting Avg
76.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#798
Source
PM monthly #949
Record (90 d)
201/321 · 63%
Trades
184
Markets
870
Volume
$79.0K
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Top consensus positions
55 in listed consensus markets · 39 of 55 on the consensus side (71%)- Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?No $890 · now 91¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be 5,600,000 or more?No $883 · now 99¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?Yes $874 · now 93¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Yes $865 · now 83¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
- Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?Yes $540 · now 38¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?Yes $474 · now 52¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County?Yes $450 · now 79¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be 4,000,000 or more?No $436 · now 99¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
Specialties
341 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 47¢- Elections
+18 pts
side won 67% of 259 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 32% of 25 at an average 40¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 28% of 88)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 45% of 110)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 82% of 65)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 94% of 78)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.