Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be 5,600,000 or more?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 91¢ · $413 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$412.6
-$40.25
84.6¢ → 90.6¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Noavg 91.3¢ | $165.2 | $164.17 | -$9.09 | 49% 30-31 (61) |
 clazzy1 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $127.99 | $150.26 | +$9.51 | 62% 345-209 (554) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $192.34 | $85.2 | +$63.66 | 36% 13446-23443 (36889) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $18.86 | $9.22 | -$9.65 | 61% 2746-1784 (4530) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $164.71 | $3.75 | -$94.69 | 50% 269-269 (538) |
EsperanzasDESTROYERInvested
$165.2
Value
$164.17
PnL
-$9.09
Record
49%
30-31 (61)
clazzy1Invested
$127.99
Value
$150.26
PnL
+$9.51
Record
62%
345-209 (554)
Invested
$192.34
Value
$85.2
PnL
+$63.66
Record
36%
13446-23443 (36889)
Invested
$18.86
Value
$9.22
PnL
-$9.65
Record
61%
2746-1784 (4530)
IstarothCTRInvested
$164.71
Value
$3.75
PnL
-$94.69
Record
50%
269-269 (538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.