Known as Reformedx since Nov 6 2026 · Previously known as: Reformedx (Oct 22 – Nov 6 2026)
Consensus PnL $29K · win rate 51% (867–839, n=1706) · PM monthly #771 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$29.3K
Record
867W / 839L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 1706 settled
Batting Avg
77.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1120
Source
PM monthly #771
Record (90 d)
791/801 · 99%
Trades
11,458
Markets
1,765
Volume
$2.7M
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Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 10 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $13K · now 47¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $7.7K · now 24¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (78% of 27)
- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)Karmine Corp $3.2K · now 66¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (52% of 24)
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over $2.5K · now 63¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?No $235 · now 47¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will T1 Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?No $228 · now 61¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 - Game 3 WinnerKarmine Corp $114 · now 31¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (T1)
- Will Benfica finish first in UEL league phase?Yes $108 · now 53¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
865 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+45 pts
side won 100% of 542 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +44%
- NBA
+49 pts
side won 100% of 32 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +45%
- Soccer
+41 pts
side won 98% of 212 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +40%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 97% of 39)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 98% of 208)
- 50–70¢: 55%(won 99% of 480)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 99% of 138)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.