Will Benfica finish first in UEL league phase?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.0K
$343.99
37.6¢ → 52.5¢
+40% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
351h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thefakenick | Yesavg 44.4¢ | $715.27 | $770.96 | +$55.69 | 50% 925-911 (1836) |
 LooksMaxing101 | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $44.07 | $107.98 | +$134.18 | 51% 887-848 (1735) |
GO Gooooooollllllllll | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $40.21 | $102.72 | +$130.01 | 50% 1305-1294 (2599) |
TH TheGreatBeta<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $50 | $26.25 | +$1.25 | 28% 589-1508 (2097) |
P1 P1kaso | Yesavg 20¢ | $168.95 | $14.6 | +$22.87 | 61% 864-548 (1412) |
thefakenickInvested
$715.27
Value
$770.96
PnL
+$55.69
Record
50%
925-911 (1836)
LooksMaxing101Invested
$44.07
Value
$107.98
PnL
+$134.18
Record
51%
887-848 (1735)
Invested
$40.21
Value
$102.72
PnL
+$130.01
Record
50%
1305-1294 (2599)
Invested
$50
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
28%
589-1508 (2097)
Invested
$168.95
Value
$14.6
PnL
+$22.87
Record
61%
864-548 (1412)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.