Games Total: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 63¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$7.7K
-$46.4
60.9¢ → 63¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 60.8¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | -$12.87 | 58% 43911-31950 (75861) |
 one8tyfive | Overavg 61¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$51.49 | 61% 2127-1371 (3498) |
AM am100CTR | Underavg 38.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$21.56 | 55% 1172-946 (2118) |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Underavg 39¢ | $1,000 | $948.71 | -$51.28 | 54% 749-630 (1379) |
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR | Underavg 40¢ | $2.5K | $939.8 | -$76.2 | 57% 1101-823 (1924) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69 | Overavg 60.6¢ | $519.63 | $540.54 | +$20.91 | 67% 41-20 (61) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,281.61
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$12.87
Record
58%
43911-31950 (75861)
one8tyfiveInvested
$1,570.34
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$51.49
Record
61%
2127-1371 (3498)
Invested
$1,342.9
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$21.56
Record
55%
1172-946 (2118)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$948.71
PnL
-$51.28
Record
54%
749-630 (1379)
Invested
$2,540
Value
$939.8
PnL
-$76.2
Record
57%
1101-823 (1924)
Invested
$519.63
Value
$540.54
PnL
+$20.91
Record
67%
41-20 (61)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.