Will T1 Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 62¢ · $442 held · ends Nov 29
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Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$442.29
$6.66
50.6¢ → 62¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reformedx | Noavg 47¢ | $158.65 | $195.78 | +$25.32 | 51% 853-816 (1669) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $134.64 | $121.41 | -$13.24 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $49.75 | $47.28 | +$9.88 | 58% 18597-13721 (32318) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $47.61 | $45.93 | -$4.3 | 45% 13648-16581 (30229) |
 Anjun<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $40.15 | $31.9 | -$11 | 55% 5006-4068 (9074) |
ReformedxInvested
$158.65
Value
$195.78
PnL
+$25.32
Record
51%
853-816 (1669)
Invested
$134.64
Value
$121.41
PnL
-$13.24
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
Invested
$49.75
Value
$47.28
PnL
+$9.88
Record
58%
18597-13721 (32318)
Invested
$47.61
Value
$45.93
PnL
-$4.3
Record
45%
13648-16581 (30229)
Anjun<$100Invested
$40.15
Value
$31.9
PnL
-$11
Record
55%
5006-4068 (9074)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.