Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Karmine Corp (71%) · Karmine Corp at 70¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Karmine Corp
7
Karmine Corp 71%
$36.0K
$1.2K
66.1¢ → 69.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralKarmine Corp at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Karmine Corp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO Gooooooollllllllll | Karmine Corpavg 66¢ | $13.2K | $13.9K | +$400 | 50% 1239-1239 (2478) |
DR drunkdegenerate | Karmine Corpavg 66¢ | $9.9K | $10.4K | +$525 | 54% 198-168 (366) |
VI vibing123 | Karmine Corpavg 66¢ | $6.6K | $7.0K | +$201.29 | 52% 1580-1467 (3047) |
 Reformedx | Karmine Corpavg 67¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$125 | 51% 847-798 (1645) |
DA dancingmonkey1CTR | T1avg 34¢ | $680 | $640 | -$40 | 53% 1253-1091 (2344) |
CL CLj0711CTR | T1avg 34¢ | $408 | $384 | -$24 | 43% 299-392 (691) |
LU lug | Karmine Corpavg 69¢ | $192.33 | $193.72 | +$1.39 | 54% 1893-1584 (3477) |
Invested
$13,200
Value
$13.9K
PnL
+$400
Record
50%
1239-1239 (2478)
Invested
$9,900
Value
$10.4K
PnL
+$525
Record
54%
198-168 (366)
Invested
$6,642.19
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$201.29
Record
52%
1580-1467 (3047)
ReformedxInvested
$3,350
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$125
Record
51%
847-798 (1645)
Invested
$680
Value
$640
PnL
-$40
Record
53%
1253-1091 (2344)
Invested
$408
Value
$384
PnL
-$24
Record
43%
299-392 (691)
Invested
$192.33
Value
$193.72
PnL
+$1.39
Record
54%
1893-1584 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.