Consensus PnL $1.2K · win rate 61% (20–13, n=33) · was PM monthly #444 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.2K
Record
20W / 13L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 33 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#570
Source
PM monthly #444
Record (90 d)
20/33 · 61%
Trades
0
Markets
135
Volume
$12.4K
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Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 15 on the consensus side (33%)- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)GamerLegion $2.4K · now 54¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)Team Falcons $442 · now 65¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Legacy)
- Will France win on 2026-11-12?No $230 · now 49¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under $115 · now 66¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (60% of 6)
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Bulls $92 · now 76¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Spurs)
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic $75 · now 60¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Jazz)
- Albirex Niigata vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki: O/U 2.5Over $28 · now 42¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- Game Handicap: SGW (-2.5) vs Nothin'Here (+2.5)Nothin'Here $27 · now 46¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Saigon Warriors)
Specialties
45 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 52¢- NBA
+51 pts
side won 100% of 26 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +53%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 53%(won 100% of 24)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 100% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.