Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (17%) · Legacy at 59¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Legacy
6
Legacy 17%
$25.8K
$117.81
Research grade
NeutralLegacy at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | Legacyavg 57.8¢ | $20.4K | $20.7K | +$236.25 | 54% 134-113 (247) |
RA RayayaCTR | Team Falconsavg 43¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$100 | — 4-3 (7) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | Team Falconsavg 42¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$18.18 | 56% 147-116 (263) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Team Falconsavg 41.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0.45 | 51% 446-422 (868) |
BI biying88888CTR<$100 | Team Falconsavg 41¢ | $24.03 | $24.32 | +$0.29 | 36% 113-199 (312) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Team Falconsavg 42¢ | $8.31 | $8.21 | -$0.1 | 22% 33-119 (152) |
Invested
$20,440.58
Value
$20.7K
PnL
+$236.25
Record
54%
134-113 (247)
Invested
$2,149.98
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$100
Record
—
4-3 (7)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$1,533.94
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$18.18
Record
56%
147-116 (263)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,495.44
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0.45
Record
51%
446-422 (868)
Invested
$24.03
Value
$24.32
PnL
+$0.29
Record
36%
113-199 (312)
Invested
$8.31
Value
$8.21
PnL
-$0.1
Record
22%
33-119 (152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.