Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Albirex Niigata vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 42¢ · $522 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$522.33
$5.67
47.2¢ → 41.5¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 52.4¢ | $295.5 | $288.94 | -$6.56 | 51% 1945-1901 (3846) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.4¢ | $232.62 | $224.1 | -$8.52 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48¢ | $62.88 | $64.85 | +$1.96 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47.2¢ | $117.99 | $123.73 | +$5.75 | 51% 505-476 (981) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $68.12 | $66.16 | -$1.97 | 41% 263-383 (646) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $26.79 | $28.21 | +$1.42 | 15% 21-117 (138) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $14.82 | $15.29 | +$0.46 | 39% 407-633 (1040) |
Invested
$295.5
Value
$288.94
PnL
-$6.56
Record
51%
1945-1901 (3846)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$117.99
Value
$123.73
PnL
+$5.75
Record
51%
505-476 (981)
Invested
$68.12
Value
$66.16
PnL
-$1.97
Record
41%
263-383 (646)
Invested
$26.79
Value
$28.21
PnL
+$1.42
Record
15%
21-117 (138)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$15.29
PnL
+$0.46
Record
39%
407-633 (1040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.