Will France win on 2026-11-12?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 56¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$106.04

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 56.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares10,874

Combined PnL+$169.05

No4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,306

Combined PnL-$63.01

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403	Yesavg 54.4¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$142.95	0% 0-66 (66)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 45.5¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$89.08	50% 1384-1403 (2787)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$98.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$514.25	$523.6	+$9.35
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 44.9¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$55.33	48% 215-230 (445)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$1.02	16% 64-346 (410)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.4¢	$636.39	$624.12	-$12.27
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$412.5	$423.75	+$11.25
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0.88	60% 3439-2335 (5774)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.4¢	$632	$619.88	-$12.13
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$412.5	$423.75	+$11.25
FV Fvalp	Yesavg 55¢	$901.57	$926.16	+$24.59	67% 69-34 (103)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$245.13	$241.37	-$3.75	48% 752-814 (1566)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.4¢	$141.78	$135.72	-$6.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.3¢	$103.35	$105.65	+$2.3
OD OddstormARB<$100	Noavg 46¢	$90.96	$88.75	-$2.22	15% 16-94 (110)
└ No leg	Noavg 46¢	$47.84	$45.24	-$2.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$43.12	$43.5	+$0.38
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 45.2¢	$116.49	$86.24	-$4.1	51% 256-247 (503)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$41.88	$39.15	-$2.73	29% 157-376 (533)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$37.55	$36.7	-$0.85	34% 164-316 (480)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$26.8	$28.32	+$1.52	61% 891-567 (1458)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$142.95

Record

0-66 (66)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,290.92

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$89.08

Record

50%

1384-1403 (2787)

Both legs:

No$1,776.6745.5¢-$98.43

Yes$514.2555¢+$9.35

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,448.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$55.33

Record

48%

215-230 (445)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,048.89

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$1.02

Record

16%

64-346 (410)

Both legs:

No$636.3944.4¢-$12.27

Yes$412.555¢+$11.25

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,044.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0.88

Record

60%

3439-2335 (5774)

Both legs:

Invested

$901.57

Value

$926.16

PnL

+$24.59

Record

67%

69-34 (103)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$245.13

Value

$241.37

PnL

-$3.75

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

Both legs:

No$141.7845.4¢-$6.06

Yes$103.3555.3¢+$2.3

OddstormARB<$100

Invested

$90.96

Value

$88.75

PnL

-$2.22

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

Both legs:

No$47.8446¢-$2.6

Yes$43.1256¢+$0.38

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$116.49

Value

$86.24

PnL

-$4.1

Record

51%

256-247 (503)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$41.88

Value

$39.15

PnL

-$2.73

Record

29%

157-376 (533)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$37.55

Value

$36.7

PnL

-$0.85

Record

34%

164-316 (480)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.8

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$1.52

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.