Spread: Spurs (-14.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (33%) · Spurs at 54¢ · $747 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
6
Spurs 33%
$747.46
$9.51
52.1¢ → 53.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Spursavg 52¢ | $483.17 | $497.11 | +$13.94 | 57% 3109-2336 (5445) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Bullsavg 47¢ | $109.98 | $109.98 | -$0 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
 VeryLucky888 | Spursavg 53¢ | $402.52 | $66.58 | -$4.38 | 51% 361-341 (702) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 47¢ | $54.05 | $54.05 | -$0 | 68% 1617-760 (2377) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 47¢ | $17.39 | $17.39 | -$0 | 48% 512-544 (1056) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Bullsavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.35 | -$0.05 | 28% 205-534 (739) |
Invested
$483.17
Value
$497.11
PnL
+$13.94
Record
57%
3109-2336 (5445)
Invested
$109.98
Value
$109.98
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
VeryLucky888Invested
$402.52
Value
$66.58
PnL
-$4.38
Record
51%
361-341 (702)
Invested
$54.05
Value
$54.05
PnL
-$0
Record
68%
1617-760 (2377)
Invested
$17.39
Value
$17.39
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
512-544 (1056)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.05
Record
28%
205-534 (739)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.