Game Handicap: SGW (-2.5) vs Nothin'Here (+2.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (40%) · Saigon Warriors at 71¢ · $889 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Saigon Warriors
5
Saigon Warriors 40%
$889.15
-$122.91
45.1¢ → 71¢
+57% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaigon Warriors at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL bloodmaster | Saigon Warriorsavg 45¢ | $744.52 | $744.57 | +$0.05 | — 14-2 (16) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 46.2¢ | $99.99 | $97.39 | -$2.6 | 22% 119-414 (533) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Nothin'Hereavg 53.2¢ | $159.74 | $40.6 | -$113.84 | 52% 472-438 (910) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 39¢ | $5 | $4.49 | -$0.51 | 41% 3151-4506 (7657) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 54¢ | $8.1 | $2.1 | -$6 | 33% 307-627 (934) |
Invested
$744.52
Value
$744.57
PnL
+$0.05
Record
—
14-2 (16)
Invested
$99.99
Value
$97.39
PnL
-$2.6
Record
22%
119-414 (533)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$159.74
Value
$40.6
PnL
-$113.84
Record
52%
472-438 (910)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.49
PnL
-$0.51
Record
41%
3151-4506 (7657)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$6
Record
33%
307-627 (934)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.