Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (83%) · GamerLegion at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Aurora46¢GamerLegion54¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GamerLegion

Consensus Traders

GamerLegion 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$26.71

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 54¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora46%

GamerLegion54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,094

Combined PnL-$26.71

Aurora1 trader

Total Value$450

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$0

GamerLegion — 83%Aurora — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGamerLegion 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000GamerLegion 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying99999	GamerLegionavg 57.2¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$50.48	29% 64-158 (222)
JU JuiceFarm	GamerLegionavg 55¢	$775.5	$789.6	+$14.1	64% 21-12 (33)
iceblue-CTR	Auroraavg 45¢	$450	$450	+$0	45% 18-22 (40)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	GamerLegionavg 50¢	$625	$360.32	+$3.45	96% 74-3 (77)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 50¢	$241	$269.92	+$28.92
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 50¢	$100.45	$90.4	-$25.47
VeryLucky888	GamerLegionavg 54¢	$162	$159.6	+$5.95	52% 642-600 (1242)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	GamerLegionavg 52¢	$46.39	$49.96	+$3.57	43% 21-28 (49)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	GamerLegionavg 54.5¢	$5.45	$5.6	+$0.15	37% 427-722 (1149)

biying99999

GamerLegion

Invested

$2,458.54

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$50.48

Record

29%

64-158 (222)

JuiceFarm

GamerLegion

Invested

$775.5

Value

$789.6

PnL

+$14.1

Record

64%

21-12 (33)

iceblue-CTR

Aurora

Invested

$450

Value

$450

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

18-22 (40)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$625

Value

$360.32

PnL

+$3.45

Record

96%

74-3 (77)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$24150¢+$28.92

Aurora$100.4550¢-$25.47

VeryLucky888

GamerLegion

Invested

$162

Value

$159.6

PnL

+$5.95

Record

52%

642-600 (1242)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$46.39

Value

$49.96

PnL

+$3.57

Record

43%

21-28 (49)

ameisgoat11<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.15

Record

37%

427-722 (1149)

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGamerLegion 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000GamerLegion 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GamerLegion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.