Consensus PnL $52K · win rate 92% (952–87, n=1039) · was PM monthly #496 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$52.0K
Record
952W / 87L
Win Rate
92.0%
of 1039 settled
Batting Avg
37.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#209
Source
PM monthly #496
Trades
42,111
Markets
6,846
Volume
$44.9M
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 22 on the consensus side (68%)- Spread: Bengals (-10.5)Titans $9.3K · now 47¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Under $5.8K · now 92¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (31% of 32)
- Sabres vs. DucksDucks $1.8K · now 1¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (73% of 35)
- Senators vs. KingsKings $1.5K · now 99¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (78% of 38)
- Titans vs. BengalsBengals $1.3K · now 86¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)Trail Blazers $900 · now 0¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (32% of 25)
- Pacers vs. HeatHeat $335 · now 73¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (76% of 18)
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Over $304 · now 46¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
931 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 54¢- MLB
+48 pts
side won 100% of 371 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +48%
- NFL
+48 pts
side won 100% of 124 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +48%
- NHL
+46 pts
side won 100% of 110 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +40%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 14)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 99% of 333)
- 50–70¢: 53%(won 99% of 489)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 100% of 95)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.