Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Trail Blazers (53%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (38%) · Grizzlies at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Trail Blazers53¢Grizzlies47¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 38%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$14.72

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 47.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers53%

Grizzlies48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,627

Combined PnL-$17.18

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$950.5

Total Shares1,828

Combined PnL+$2.46

Grizzlies — 38%Trail Blazers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Grizzliesavg 47.6¢	$2.8K	$1.3K	-$29.76	53% 3929-3421 (7350)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$520	$520	+$0	53% 5542-4910 (10452)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$370.63	$382.72	+$12.09	54% 17000-14246 (31246)
VeryLucky888	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$262.55	$262.6	+$2.58	58% 41194-29862 (71056)
RollAwayTheDew	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$156	$156	+$0	53% 361-318 (679)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$14.89	$15.38	+$0.49	57% 13329-10181 (23510)
HE Herdonia<$100	Trail Blazersavg 53¢	$6.77	$6.7	-$0.06	54% 3274-2821 (6095)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Trail Blazersavg 52.5¢	$5.25	$5.2	-$0.05	47% 2159-2459 (4618)

takeormakeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,789.19

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$29.76

Record

53%

3929-3421 (7350)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Trail Blazers

Invested

$520

Value

$520

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5542-4910 (10452)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$370.63

Value

$382.72

PnL

+$12.09

Record

54%

17000-14246 (31246)

VeryLucky888

Trail Blazers

Invested

$262.55

Value

$262.6

PnL

+$2.58

Record

58%

41194-29862 (71056)

RollAwayTheDew

Trail Blazers

Invested

$156

Value

$156

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

361-318 (679)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$14.89

Value

$15.38

PnL

+$0.49

Record

57%

13329-10181 (23510)

Herdonia<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.77

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0.06

Record

54%

3274-2821 (6095)

ameisgoat11<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

2159-2459 (4618)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.