Spread: Bengals (-10.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (40%) · Bengals at 53¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Bengals
5
Bengals 40%
$22.9K
$175.27
50.4¢ → 52.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBengals at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Bengalsavg 50.5¢ | $11.1K | $11.6K | +$452.91 | 54% 583-504 (1087) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Titansavg 49.5¢ | $9.0K | $8.7K | -$252.47 | 54% 3276-2826 (6102) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Titansavg 52¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$25 | 50% 1179-1173 (2352) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Titansavg 51¢ | $13.26 | $12.35 | -$0.91 | 54% 2951-2530 (5481) |
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494<$100 | Bengalsavg 49¢ | $10.29 | $11.03 | +$0.74 | 54% 1261-1068 (2329) |
Invested
$11,146.88
Value
$11.6K
PnL
+$452.91
Record
54%
583-504 (1087)
Invested
$8,981.16
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$252.47
Record
54%
3276-2826 (6102)
Invested
$2,600
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$25
Record
50%
1179-1173 (2352)
Invested
$13.26
Value
$12.35
PnL
-$0.91
Record
54%
2951-2530 (5481)
Invested
$10.29
Value
$11.03
PnL
+$0.74
Record
54%
1261-1068 (2329)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.