Pacers vs. Heat
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (67%) · Heat at 66¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
6
Heat 67%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
$7.47
66¢ → 65.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941 | Heatavg 66¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$0 | 89% 242-30 (272) |
AC acorpCTR | Pacersavg 34¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$12.51 | 49% 619-635 (1254) |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Pacersavg 33.3¢ | $690.26 | $763.44 | -$16.32 | 38% 365-593 (958) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 33.3¢ | $432.26 | $448.26 | -$13.48 | |
| └ Heat leg | Heatavg 67.1¢ | $322.81 | $315.18 | -$2.84 | |
 poshposh | Heatavg 65¢ | $171.22 | $172.53 | +$1.32 | 59% 9693-6689 (16382) |
GT gt7238CTR | Pacersavg 34¢ | $103.8 | $97.93 | -$5.87 | 45% 600-735 (1335) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Heatavg 67¢ | $42.2 | $40.79 | -$0.45 | 52% 218-204 (422) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Heatavg 67¢ | $2.32 | $2.29 | -$0.03 | 55% 1708-1409 (3117) |
Invested
$3,187.88
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$0
Record
89%
242-30 (272)
Invested
$1,110.44
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$12.51
Record
49%
619-635 (1254)
Invested
$690.26
Value
$763.44
PnL
-$16.32
Record
38%
365-593 (958)
Both legs:
poshposhInvested
$171.22
Value
$172.53
PnL
+$1.32
Record
59%
9693-6689 (16382)
Invested
$103.8
Value
$97.93
PnL
-$5.87
Record
45%
600-735 (1335)
Invested
$42.2
Value
$40.79
PnL
-$0.45
Record
52%
218-204 (422)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$2.29
PnL
-$0.03
Record
55%
1708-1409 (3117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.