Titans vs. Bengals
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (67%) · Bengals at 81¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Bengals
3
Bengals 67%
$4.1K
-$54.99
81.7¢ → 81¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBengals at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Bengalsavg 82¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$30 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
PO popay141CTR | Titansavg 18.2¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$39.39 | 70% 14-6 (20) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Bengalsavg 80.6¢ | $615.08 | $629.48 | +$14.4 | 52% 267-243 (510) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.