Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Senators (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Senators vs. Kings
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (60%) · Kings at 48¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Kings
5
Kings 60%
$15.4K
-$68.43
48¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKings at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Senators 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA para-VisionCTR | Kingsavg 48¢ | $9.6K | $9.4K | -$100 | 56% 204-162 (366) |
TA taylorsversion | Senatorsavg 52¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$68.11 | 54% 122-105 (227) |
CO cocococococo | Senatorsavg 52.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$30.54 | 52% 1649-1523 (3172) |
PI PIPIZINCTR | Kingsavg 48¢ | $300 | $293.75 | -$6.25 | 51% 405-382 (787) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Kingsavg 47¢ | $23.5 | $23.75 | +$0.25 | 55% 6990-5611 (12601) |
Invested
$9,600
Value
$9.4K
PnL
-$100
Record
56%
204-162 (366)
Invested
$3,456.82
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$68.11
Record
54%
122-105 (227)
Invested
$2,147.19
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$30.54
Record
52%
1649-1523 (3172)
Invested
$300
Value
$293.75
PnL
-$6.25
Record
51%
405-382 (787)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$23.5
Value
$23.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
55%
6990-5611 (12601)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.