Sabres vs. Ducks
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sabres (33%) · Sabres at 56¢ · $25K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Sabres
6
Sabres 33%
$24.5K
$354.32
55.9¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSabres at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Sabres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Sabresavg 56¢ | $12.2K | $12.3K | +$108.52 | 54% 122-105 (227) |
RO royalestakeCTR | Ducksavg 44¢ | $5.3K | $5.4K | +$120 | 46% 374-431 (805) |
BA BabooouCTR | Ducksavg 44¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$70 | 52% 210-192 (402) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Ducksavg 44.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$44.44 | 52% 1649-1523 (3172) |
RO roldy | Sabresavg 55¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$10.66 | 55% 1409-1176 (2585) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Ducksavg 44.5¢ | $62.38 | $59.69 | +$0.71 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
Invested
$12,153.69
Value
$12.3K
PnL
+$108.52
Record
54%
122-105 (227)
Invested
$5,280
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$120
Record
46%
374-431 (805)
Invested
$3,080
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$70
Record
52%
210-192 (402)
Invested
$2,455.31
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$44.44
Record
52%
1649-1523 (3172)
Invested
$1,171.97
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$10.66
Record
55%
1409-1176 (2585)
Invested
$62.38
Value
$59.69
PnL
+$0.71
Record
57%
13340-10198 (23538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.