Plain consensus (baseline)
by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · done
Study rule: Buy the consensus side once per market (first time all rules hold) when the market has 5+ tracked holders, the side has 60 %+ of the holders by head count, its price is 0.05-0.95, the market ends 1+ h later (price no older than 6 h). Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, core): The yardstick every other bot is measured against. The backtest predicts about -5 % a trade (pooled -4.8 %, CI -6.5..-3.1 %, n 10,051; -3.9 % in Mar-Apr, -5.2 % in Oct): the consensus wins slightly more often than its price says (+1 point) but not by the ~2-3 points the spread and fee take.
- Closed trades
- 11,908
- Mean return / $1
- −2.4 %
- −4.1 % to −0.7 %
- Hit rate vs break-even
- 66 % vs 46 %
- In / out of sample
- −2.8 % / −2.1 %
- 6,438 / 5,173 trades
Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, at any price (0.05–0.95), bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window. Over 11,908 closed trades between Mar 10 2026 and Oct 22 2026 it lost 2.4 % per $1 staked (95 % interval −4.1 % to −0.7 %). It won 66 % of its trades and needed 46 % to break even at its entry prices.
The mean return is negative and its 95 % interval excludes zero: this rule lost money after costs. Past results, not advice.
Plain consensus, all markets on the same data and period: −2.4 % per $1 over 11,908 trades (−4.1 % to −0.7 %). This rule did 0.0 points the same per trade, intervals overlapping.
The numbers
| Per $1 staked, after costs | All | In-sample (to Aug 10 2026) | Out-of-sample (after) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed trades (events) | 11,908 (7,332) | 6,438 (3,774) | 5,173 (3,477) |
| Mean return per trade | −2.4 % | −2.8 % | −2.1 % |
| 95 % interval | −4.1 % to −0.7 % | −5.2 % to −0.4 % | −4.5 % to +0.3 % |
| Hit rate | 66.2 % | 66.0 % | 66.2 % |
| Break-even hit rate | 46.2 % | 43.8 % | 49.3 % |
| P/L at $1 stakes | −$289 | −$180 | −$109 |
| Largest drawdown | $322 | $243 | $148 |
| Most stakes open at once | 1395 | 1332 | 1376 |
| Average entry price | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Average hold | 11.7 d | 15.9 d | 46 h |
| p (mean > 0, one-sided) | 0.997 | 0.989 | 0.955 |
Period Mar 10 2026 – Oct 22 2026; markets ending before Oct 15 2026 count; split at Aug 10 2026. 80 positions still open at the end of the data are excluded. Interval: cluster-robust normal.
Cumulative P/L at $1 stakes
By topic (the 10 most traded)
| Topic | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soccer | 1,756 | 59 % | −4.1 % | −$72 |
| Esports | 1,288 | 64 % | −5.2 % | −$67 |
| Geopolitics | 1,143 | 71 % | −1.2 % | −$14 |
| Crypto | 1,099 | 73 % | −8.3 % | −$91 |
| Tennis | 1,032 | 68 % | +4.0 % | +$41 |
| Weather | 958 | 72 % | +0.8 % | +$8 |
| Elections | 817 | 68 % | −2.1 % | −$17 |
| Mentions | 495 | 70 % | −6.3 % | −$31 |
| MLB | 442 | 58 % | −4.3 % | −$19 |
| NBA | 416 | 52 % | −13.4 % | −$56 |
By entry price
| Price band | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05-0.30 | 1,412 | 14 % | −25.9 % | −$366 |
| 0.30-0.50 | 1,943 | 42 % | −3.0 % | −$58 |
| 0.50-0.70 | 2,667 | 62 % | +0.7 % | +$20 |
| 0.70-0.95 | 5,595 | 88 % | +2.0 % | +$114 |
| 0.95-1.00 | 291 | 97 % | +0.4 % | +$1 |
By month of entry
| Month | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2,867 | — | −1.9 % | −$54 |
| 2026-04 | 1,883 | — | −3.6 % | −$67 |
| 2026-05 | 773 | — | −4.5 % | −$35 |
| 2026-06 | 690 | — | −7.5 % | −$52 |
| 2026-07 | 431 | — | +8.0 % | +$34 |
| 2026-08 | 385 | — | −9.0 % | −$35 |
| 2026-09 | 327 | — | +4.2 % | +$14 |
| 2026-10 | 4,552 | — | −2.1 % | −$95 |
Best trades
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes at 0.05 · entered Apr 6 2026 · won+1430 %
- Will Puerto Rico win Pool A at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No at 0.06 · entered Mar 10 2026 · won+1354 %
- Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?Yes at 0.06 · entered Apr 12 2026 · won+1318 %
- Will USA win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No at 0.06 · entered Mar 10 2026 · won+1265 %
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 12?No at 0.07 · entered Oct 12 2026 · won+1141 %
Worst trades
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs The Last Resort (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #11 Group StageThe Last Resort at 0.31 · entered Oct 14 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will Finland win on 2026-10-13?No at 0.36 · entered Oct 13 2026 · lost−100 %
- Wrexham AFC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC: O/U 2.5Under at 0.54 · entered Oct 13 2026 · lost−100 %
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 WinnerVitality at 0.66 · entered Oct 10 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-10-09?No at 0.37 · entered Oct 9 2026 · lost−100 %
Read before believing it
- Trying many variants finds lucky ones: the more rules you test, the more of them will look good by chance. A single Promising run is a hypothesis for a paper bot, not a proven edge.
- Returns are per $1 staked, equal stakes, prices from the tracked wallets' own fills (median error about half a cent, more in fast markets), entries and exits at hour boundaries. The live order book will differ.
- The in-sample half is the first 70 % of the period by time, the out-of-sample half the last 30 %; a trade belongs to a half when it was entered in it and its market ended before the half closed.
- Past results, not advice.
- Only the fills of wallets the site tracked, from the day it started tracking them: curated wallets from Mar 10 2026, the leaderboard set from Oct 2 2026. A position a wallet opened before it was tracked is invisible.
- Holders are rebuilt from on-chain fills; the live site also reads Polymarket's position answers, so the live consensus can differ (85–92 % side agreement on tradable markets).
Plain consensus (baseline)
Study rule: Buy the consensus side once per market (first time all rules hold) when the market has 5+ tracked holders, the side has 60 %+ of the holders by head count, its price is 0.05-0.95, the market ends 1+ h later (price no older than 6 h). Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, core): The yardstick every other bot is measured against. The backtest predicts about -5 % a trade (pooled -4.8 %, CI -6.5..-3.1 %, n 10,051; -3.9 % in Mar-Apr, -5.2 % in Oct): the consensus wins slightly more often than its price says (+1 point) but not by the ~2-3 points the spread and fee take.
Past results, not advice. Numbers are per $1 staked after the run's costs on the tracked wallets' own fills; the live order book will differ. Clone this run and change one thing.