Quality ≥ 3, decided at the signal
by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · done
Study rule: When a market's tracked-trader consensus first qualifies (5+ holders, 60 %+ of them on one side, price 0.05-0.95, at least 1 h before the end date), buy the consensus side only if the Bot API's quality.net is 3 or more at that moment: at least 3 more 'quality' holders (win rate 60 %+ over 20+ settled markets, $100+ in this market) on the consensus side than against it. Otherwise never trade that market. Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, skill): A (the family's best evidence; not proven)
- Closed trades
- 631
- Mean return / $1
- +5.7 %
- +0.5 % to +10.9 %
- Hit rate vs break-even
- 81 % vs 68 %
- In / out of sample
- +6.5 % / +5.1 %
- 339 / 262 trades
Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, at any price (0.05–0.95) and at least 3 more quality holders (win rate ≥ 60 % over ≥ 20 settled, $100+ in the market) for it than against it, decided once, in the hour the consensus forms, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window. Over 631 closed trades between Mar 10 2026 and Oct 22 2026 it made 5.7 % per $1 staked (95 % interval +0.5 % to +10.9 %). It won 81 % of its trades and needed 68 % to break even at its entry prices.
Positive and significant in the first 70 % of the period, and still positive in the last 30 %. One passing test is a reason to paper-trade, not proof. Past results, not advice.
Plain consensus, all markets on the same data and period: −2.4 % per $1 over 11,908 trades (−4.1 % to −0.7 %). This rule did 8.2 points better per trade, with non-overlapping intervals.
The numbers
| Per $1 staked, after costs | All | In-sample (to Aug 10 2026) | Out-of-sample (after) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed trades (events) | 631 (516) | 339 (261) | 262 (239) |
| Mean return per trade | +5.7 % | +6.5 % | +5.1 % |
| 95 % interval | +0.5 % to +10.9 % | +0.2 % to +12.7 % | −4.7 % to +15.0 % |
| Hit rate | 81.0 % | 85.5 % | 74.4 % |
| Break-even hit rate | 67.6 % | 69.0 % | 65.5 % |
| P/L at $1 stakes | +$36 | +$22 | +$13 |
| Largest drawdown | $8 | $5 | $8 |
| Most stakes open at once | 146 | 140 | 43 |
| Average entry price | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| Average hold | 20.6 d | 29.7 d | 2.5 d |
| p (mean > 0, one-sided) | 0.018 | 0.021 | 0.154 |
Period Mar 10 2026 – Oct 22 2026; markets ending before Oct 15 2026 count; split at Aug 10 2026. 5 positions still open at the end of the data are excluded. Interval: cluster bootstrap (events resampled).
Cumulative P/L at $1 stakes
By topic (the 10 most traded)
| Topic | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 155 | 88 % | +5.9 % | +$9 |
| Crypto | 85 | 79 % | +1.4 % | +$1 |
| Esports | 61 | 77 % | +2.1 % | +$1 |
| Soccer | 53 | 81 % | +30.2 % | +$16 |
| Finance | 42 | 95 % | +18.7 % | +$8 |
| Elections | 34 | 74 % | −13.4 % | −$5 |
| Politics | 33 | 82 % | −10.8 % | −$4 |
| MMA | 26 | 77 % | +13.0 % | +$3 |
| Tennis | 23 | 83 % | +36.0 % | +$8 |
| Other | 19 | 89 % | +2.1 % | +$0 |
By entry price
| Price band | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05-0.30 | 17 | 35 % | +51.9 % | +$9 |
| 0.30-0.50 | 59 | 44 % | +1.7 % | +$1 |
| 0.50-0.70 | 119 | 68 % | +9.2 % | +$11 |
| 0.70-0.95 | 402 | 91 % | +4.0 % | +$16 |
| 0.95-1.00 | 34 | 94 % | −2.1 % | −$1 |
By month of entry
| Month | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 162 | — | +4.5 % | +$7 |
| 2026-04 | 58 | — | +13.5 % | +$8 |
| 2026-05 | 40 | — | +3.3 % | +$1 |
| 2026-06 | 49 | — | +9.4 % | +$5 |
| 2026-07 | 57 | — | +2.6 % | +$1 |
| 2026-08 | 28 | — | −24.6 % | −$7 |
| 2026-09 | 17 | — | −3.3 % | −$1 |
| 2026-10 | 220 | — | +9.6 % | +$21 |
Best trades
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No at 0.16 · entered Apr 7 2026 · won+465 %
- Braga: Zsombor Piros vs Elmer MoellerElmer Moeller at 0.17 · entered Oct 8 2026 · won+434 %
- Suzhou: Tatiana Prozorova vs Kyoka OkamuraKyoka Okamura at 0.22 · entered Oct 7 2026 · won+319 %
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?No at 0.23 · entered Jul 27 2026 · won+296 %
- UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)Jim Miller at 0.27 · entered May 9 2026 · won+245 %
Worst trades
- Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?No at 0.24 · entered Jul 15 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?No at 0.37 · entered Mar 10 2026 · lost−100 %
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?No at 0.21 · entered Apr 8 2026 · lost−100 %
- UFC 332: Alden Coria vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Prelims)Alden Coria at 0.44 · entered Oct 3 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No at 0.61 · entered Jul 9 2026 · lost−100 %
Read before believing it
- Trying many variants finds lucky ones: the more rules you test, the more of them will look good by chance. A single Promising run is a hypothesis for a paper bot, not a proven edge.
- Returns are per $1 staked, equal stakes, prices from the tracked wallets' own fills (median error about half a cent, more in fast markets), entries and exits at hour boundaries. The live order book will differ.
- The in-sample half is the first 70 % of the period by time, the out-of-sample half the last 30 %; a trade belongs to a half when it was entered in it and its market ended before the half closed.
- Past results, not advice.
- Only the fills of wallets the site tracked, from the day it started tracking them: curated wallets from Mar 10 2026, the leaderboard set from Oct 2 2026. A position a wallet opened before it was tracked is invisible.
- Holders are rebuilt from on-chain fills; the live site also reads Polymarket's position answers, so the live consensus can differ (85–92 % side agreement on tradable markets).
- Timing 'first hour only': the rule is decided once, at the hour the consensus first qualifies; markets whose money or quality rule failed at that moment were never traded.
Quality ≥ 3, decided at the signal
Study rule: When a market's tracked-trader consensus first qualifies (5+ holders, 60 %+ of them on one side, price 0.05-0.95, at least 1 h before the end date), buy the consensus side only if the Bot API's quality.net is 3 or more at that moment: at least 3 more 'quality' holders (win rate 60 %+ over 20+ settled markets, $100+ in this market) on the consensus side than against it. Otherwise never trade that market. Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, skill): A (the family's best evidence; not proven)
Past results, not advice. Numbers are per $1 staked after the run's costs on the tracked wallets' own fills; the live order book will differ. Clone this run and change one thing.