Tennis tour underdogs 70 %
by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · done
Study rule: ATP / WTA tour match winners where 70 %+ of the 5+ tracked holders back the player priced 0.05-0.50 (the underdog); no money floor; hold to the result. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): replicated in both windows but small and found after looking at the price breakdown of #1; speculative-plus
- Closed trades
- 119
- Mean return / $1
- +34.6 %
- −1.0 % to +68.9 %
- Hit rate vs break-even
- 42 % vs 24 %
- In / out of sample
- +19.6 % / +62.1 %
- 78 / 40 trades
Buy the side 70 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in ATP/WTA tour tennis markets, priced 0.05–0.50, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window. Over 119 closed trades between Mar 10 2026 and Oct 22 2026 it made 34.6 % per $1 staked (95 % interval −1.0 % to +68.9 %). It won 42 % of its trades and needed 24 % to break even at its entry prices.
The mean is positive, but either the in-sample half is not significant or the out-of-sample half disagrees. Picking the best of many variants produces results like this by chance. Past results, not advice.
Plain consensus, all markets on the same data and period: −2.4 % per $1 over 11,908 trades (−4.1 % to −0.7 %). This rule did 37.0 points better per trade, intervals overlapping.
Plain consensus, tour tennis only on the same data and period: +6.8 % per $1 over 583 trades (−1.7 % to +15.3 %). This rule did 27.7 points better per trade, intervals overlapping.
The numbers
| Per $1 staked, after costs | All | In-sample (to Aug 10 2026) | Out-of-sample (after) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed trades (events) | 119 (119) | 78 (78) | 40 (40) |
| Mean return per trade | +34.6 % | +19.6 % | +62.1 % |
| 95 % interval | −1.0 % to +68.9 % | −19.8 % to +58.9 % | −11.9 % to +136.1 % |
| Hit rate | 42.0 % | 39.7 % | 45.0 % |
| Break-even hit rate | 23.8 % | 22.4 % | 26.7 % |
| P/L at $1 stakes | +$41 | +$15 | +$25 |
| Largest drawdown | $10 | $10 | $7 |
| Most stakes open at once | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Average entry price | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| Average hold | 3.6 d | 3.8 d | 22 h |
| p (mean > 0, one-sided) | 0.031 | 0.166 | 0.054 |
Period Mar 10 2026 – Oct 22 2026; markets ending before Oct 15 2026 count; split at Aug 10 2026. 6 positions still open at the end of the data are excluded. Interval: cluster bootstrap (events resampled).
Cumulative P/L at $1 stakes
By topic (the 10 most traded)
| Topic | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis | 119 | 42 % | +34.6 % | +$41 |
By entry price
| Price band | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05-0.30 | 45 | 27 % | +43.1 % | +$19 |
| 0.30-0.50 | 69 | 54 % | +36.0 % | +$25 |
| 0.50-0.70 | 5 | 20 % | −61.7 % | −$3 |
By month of entry
| Month | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 22 | — | −23.1 % | −$5 |
| 2026-04 | 39 | — | +61.3 % | +$24 |
| 2026-05 | 15 | — | −11.6 % | −$2 |
| 2026-06 | 2 | — | +10.5 % | +$0 |
| 2026-07 | 1 | — | −100.0 % | −$1 |
| 2026-08 | 8 | — | +172.6 % | +$14 |
| 2026-09 | 3 | — | −100.0 % | −$3 |
| 2026-10 | 29 | — | +48.4 % | +$14 |
Best trades
- Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Yes at 0.07 · entered Aug 21 2026 · won+1095 %
- Madrid Open, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Martin DammMartin Damm at 0.08 · entered Apr 21 2026 · won+963 %
- China Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Aryna SabalenkaNikola Bartunkova at 0.14 · entered Oct 3 2026 · won+539 %
- China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga SwiatekElise Mertens at 0.19 · entered Oct 9 2026 · won+381 %
- Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Karolina Pliskova vs Aliaksandra SasnovichKarolina Pliskova at 0.19 · entered Apr 7 2026 · won+381 %
Worst trades
- Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander BlockxCristian Garin at 0.40 · entered Apr 23 2026 · lost−100 %
- Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Yibing WuYibing Wu at 0.50 · entered Mar 20 2026 · lost−100 %
- Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub MensikJakub Mensik at 0.11 · entered Aug 19 2026 · lost−100 %
- Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy PaulAlex de Minaur at 0.05 · entered May 22 2026 · lost−100 %
- Madrid Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin TiranteRoberto Bautista Agut at 0.22 · entered Apr 22 2026 · lost−100 %
Read before believing it
- Trying many variants finds lucky ones: the more rules you test, the more of them will look good by chance. A single Promising run is a hypothesis for a paper bot, not a proven edge.
- Returns are per $1 staked, equal stakes, prices from the tracked wallets' own fills (median error about half a cent, more in fast markets), entries and exits at hour boundaries. The live order book will differ.
- The in-sample half is the first 70 % of the period by time, the out-of-sample half the last 30 %; a trade belongs to a half when it was entered in it and its market ended before the half closed.
- Past results, not advice.
- Only the fills of wallets the site tracked, from the day it started tracking them: curated wallets from Mar 10 2026, the leaderboard set from Oct 2 2026. A position a wallet opened before it was tracked is invisible.
- Holders are rebuilt from on-chain fills; the live site also reads Polymarket's position answers, so the live consensus can differ (85–92 % side agreement on tradable markets).
Tennis tour underdogs 70 %
Study rule: ATP / WTA tour match winners where 70 %+ of the 5+ tracked holders back the player priced 0.05-0.50 (the underdog); no money floor; hold to the result. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): replicated in both windows but small and found after looking at the price breakdown of #1; speculative-plus
Past results, not advice. Numbers are per $1 staked after the run's costs on the tracked wallets' own fills; the live order book will differ. Clone this run and change one thing.