Longshots 0.05–0.30 (what not to do)
by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · done
The control nobody should copy: the core study measured about −30 % a trade on consensus longshots (−22 % in spring, −35 % in October).
- Closed trades
- 2,410
- Mean return / $1
- −17.0 %
- −25.0 % to −8.6 %
- Hit rate vs break-even
- 18 % vs 16 %
- In / out of sample
- −12.6 % / −26.7 %
- 1,528 / 812 trades
Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, priced 0.05–0.30, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window. Over 2,410 closed trades between Mar 10 2026 and Oct 22 2026 it lost 17.0 % per $1 staked (95 % interval −25.0 % to −8.6 %). It won 18 % of its trades and needed 16 % to break even at its entry prices.
The mean return is negative and its 95 % interval excludes zero: this rule lost money after costs. Past results, not advice.
Plain consensus, all markets on the same data and period: −2.4 % per $1 over 11,908 trades (−4.1 % to −0.7 %). This rule did 14.5 points worse per trade, with non-overlapping intervals.
The numbers
| Per $1 staked, after costs | All | In-sample (to Aug 10 2026) | Out-of-sample (after) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed trades (events) | 2,410 (1,941) | 1,528 (1,177) | 812 (733) |
| Mean return per trade | −17.0 % | −12.6 % | −26.7 % |
| 95 % interval | −25.0 % to −8.6 % | −22.9 % to −2.3 % | −39.3 % to −14.1 % |
| Hit rate | 17.8 % | 18.5 % | 16.0 % |
| Break-even hit rate | 15.5 % | 15.4 % | 15.4 % |
| P/L at $1 stakes | −$409 | −$193 | −$217 |
| Largest drawdown | $438 | $243 | $217 |
| Most stakes open at once | 335 | 318 | 204 |
| Average entry price | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Average hold | 12.7 d | 15.5 d | 2.6 d |
| p (mean > 0, one-sided) | 1.000 | 0.992 | 1.000 |
Period Mar 10 2026 – Oct 22 2026; markets ending before Oct 15 2026 count; split at Aug 10 2026. 19 positions still open at the end of the data are excluded. Interval: cluster bootstrap (events resampled).
Cumulative P/L at $1 stakes
By topic (the 10 most traded)
| Topic | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 357 | 18 % | −14.6 % | −$52 |
| Elections | 242 | 21 % | +2.2 % | +$5 |
| Esports | 239 | 12 % | −54.4 % | −$130 |
| Soccer | 227 | 18 % | −18.6 % | −$42 |
| Crypto | 180 | 11 % | −50.0 % | −$90 |
| Tennis | 174 | 23 % | +10.2 % | +$18 |
| Weather | 165 | 16 % | −21.1 % | −$35 |
| Mentions | 139 | 16 % | −24.1 % | −$34 |
| Tech | 107 | 26 % | +16.1 % | +$17 |
| Entertainment | 96 | 16 % | −33.9 % | −$33 |
By entry price
| Price band | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05-0.30 | 2,291 | 17 % | −17.0 % | −$390 |
| 0.30-0.50 | 119 | 27 % | −15.4 % | −$18 |
By month of entry
| Month | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 561 | — | −18.2 % | −$102 |
| 2026-04 | 506 | — | −5.4 % | −$27 |
| 2026-05 | 233 | — | −18.3 % | −$43 |
| 2026-06 | 175 | — | −13.6 % | −$24 |
| 2026-07 | 94 | — | +11.6 % | +$11 |
| 2026-08 | 106 | — | −28.3 % | −$30 |
| 2026-09 | 97 | — | +10.0 % | +$10 |
| 2026-10 | 638 | — | −31.9 % | −$203 |
Best trades
- State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?No at 0.05 · entered Apr 28 2026 · won+1492 %
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes at 0.05 · entered Apr 6 2026 · won+1430 %
- Will Puerto Rico win Pool A at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No at 0.06 · entered Mar 10 2026 · won+1354 %
- Iran leadership change by June 30?No at 0.06 · entered Apr 28 2026 · won+1329 %
- Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?Yes at 0.06 · entered Apr 12 2026 · won+1318 %
Worst trades
- Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs MIBR GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Americas Last Chance Qualifier Group StageMIBR GC at 0.05 · entered Oct 14 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will Riga FC win on 2026-10-10?No at 0.19 · entered Oct 10 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 11?No at 0.23 · entered Oct 11 2026 · lost−100 %
- Dogecoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ETUp at 0.08 · entered Oct 7 2026 · lost−100 %
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Titans at 0.16 · entered Oct 11 2026 · lost−100 %
Read before believing it
- Trying many variants finds lucky ones: the more rules you test, the more of them will look good by chance. A single Promising run is a hypothesis for a paper bot, not a proven edge.
- Returns are per $1 staked, equal stakes, prices from the tracked wallets' own fills (median error about half a cent, more in fast markets), entries and exits at hour boundaries. The live order book will differ.
- The in-sample half is the first 70 % of the period by time, the out-of-sample half the last 30 %; a trade belongs to a half when it was entered in it and its market ended before the half closed.
- Past results, not advice.
- Only the fills of wallets the site tracked, from the day it started tracking them: curated wallets from Mar 10 2026, the leaderboard set from Oct 2 2026. A position a wallet opened before it was tracked is invisible.
- Holders are rebuilt from on-chain fills; the live site also reads Polymarket's position answers, so the live consensus can differ (85–92 % side agreement on tradable markets).
Longshots 0.05–0.30 (what not to do)
The control nobody should copy: the core study measured about −30 % a trade on consensus longshots (−22 % in spring, −35 % in October).
Past results, not advice. Numbers are per $1 staked after the run's costs on the tracked wallets' own fills; the live order book will differ. Clone this run and change one thing.