Esports favourites with $10k+
by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · done
Study rule: Esports (CS2, LoL, Dota 2, Valorant, ...), any market: buy the 60 %+ consensus side when $10,000+ of tracked money is on it and it is priced 0.50-0.90; hold to the result. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): weak: positive in both windows, neither significant after selection
- Closed trades
- 475
- Mean return / $1
- +5.1 %
- −0.1 % to +10.6 %
- Hit rate vs break-even
- 77 % vs 71 %
- In / out of sample
- +3.4 % / +7.1 %
- 256 / 219 trades
Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in Esports markets, priced 0.50–0.90 with $10,000+ of their money on it, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window. Over 475 closed trades between Mar 10 2026 and Oct 22 2026 it made 5.1 % per $1 staked (95 % interval −0.1 % to +10.6 %). It won 77 % of its trades and needed 71 % to break even at its entry prices.
The mean is positive, but either the in-sample half is not significant or the out-of-sample half disagrees. Picking the best of many variants produces results like this by chance. Past results, not advice.
Plain consensus, all markets on the same data and period: −2.4 % per $1 over 11,908 trades (−4.1 % to −0.7 %). This rule did 7.6 points better per trade, with non-overlapping intervals.
Plain consensus, Esports only on the same data and period: −5.2 % per $1 over 1,288 trades (−9.7 % to −0.5 %). This rule did 10.4 points better per trade, with non-overlapping intervals.
The numbers
| Per $1 staked, after costs | All | In-sample (to Aug 10 2026) | Out-of-sample (after) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed trades (events) | 475 (386) | 256 (215) | 219 (171) |
| Mean return per trade | +5.1 % | +3.4 % | +7.1 % |
| 95 % interval | −0.1 % to +10.6 % | −4.1 % to +11.0 % | −1.3 % to +15.5 % |
| Hit rate | 76.8 % | 77.7 % | 75.8 % |
| Break-even hit rate | 71.2 % | 73.5 % | 68.8 % |
| P/L at $1 stakes | +$24 | +$9 | +$16 |
| Largest drawdown | $10 | $6 | $10 |
| Most stakes open at once | 21 | 10 | 21 |
| Average entry price | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| Average hold | 14 h | 14 h | 13 h |
| p (mean > 0, one-sided) | 0.037 | 0.186 | 0.049 |
Period Mar 10 2026 – Oct 22 2026; markets ending before Oct 15 2026 count; split at Aug 10 2026. 3 positions still open at the end of the data are excluded. Interval: cluster bootstrap (events resampled).
Cumulative P/L at $1 stakes
By topic (the 10 most traded)
| Topic | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esports | 475 | 77 % | +5.1 % | +$24 |
By entry price
| Price band | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50-0.70 | 210 | 66 % | +6.8 % | +$14 |
| 0.70-0.95 | 265 | 86 % | +3.8 % | +$10 |
By month of entry
| Month | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 59 | — | +0.0 % | +$0 |
| 2026-04 | 55 | — | +11.8 % | +$6 |
| 2026-05 | 69 | — | −1.3 % | −$1 |
| 2026-06 | 47 | — | +7.0 % | +$3 |
| 2026-07 | 23 | — | −2.4 % | −$1 |
| 2026-08 | 28 | — | −24.0 % | −$7 |
| 2026-09 | 20 | — | +32.8 % | +$7 |
| 2026-10 | 174 | — | +9.3 % | +$16 |
Best trades
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)G2 at 0.50 · entered Jun 19 2026 · won+91 %
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsSpirit at 0.50 · entered Jun 19 2026 · won+91 %
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto PlayoffsMOUZ at 0.50 · entered Sep 5 2026 · won+91 %
- Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs BIG (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 PlayoffsLuminosity at 0.50 · entered Oct 2 2026 · won+90 %
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BTheMongolz at 0.51 · entered Mar 23 2026 · won+88 %
Worst trades
- Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs BBL (BO3) - ROG Journey PlayoffsBC.Game Esports at 0.69 · entered Oct 3 2026 · lost−100 %
- Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Blasterbl - Game 1 WinnerTeam Synapse at 0.61 · entered Oct 8 2026 · lost−100 %
- Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs100 Thieves at 0.69 · entered Oct 3 2026 · lost−100 %
- LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Gen.G at 0.87 · entered Apr 3 2026 · lost−100 %
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group StageBetBoom Team at 0.66 · entered May 27 2026 · lost−100 %
Read before believing it
- Trying many variants finds lucky ones: the more rules you test, the more of them will look good by chance. A single Promising run is a hypothesis for a paper bot, not a proven edge.
- Returns are per $1 staked, equal stakes, prices from the tracked wallets' own fills (median error about half a cent, more in fast markets), entries and exits at hour boundaries. The live order book will differ.
- The in-sample half is the first 70 % of the period by time, the out-of-sample half the last 30 %; a trade belongs to a half when it was entered in it and its market ended before the half closed.
- Past results, not advice.
- Only the fills of wallets the site tracked, from the day it started tracking them: curated wallets from Mar 10 2026, the leaderboard set from Oct 2 2026. A position a wallet opened before it was tracked is invisible.
- Holders are rebuilt from on-chain fills; the live site also reads Polymarket's position answers, so the live consensus can differ (85–92 % side agreement on tradable markets).
Esports favourites with $10k+
Study rule: Esports (CS2, LoL, Dota 2, Valorant, ...), any market: buy the 60 %+ consensus side when $10,000+ of tracked money is on it and it is priced 0.50-0.90; hold to the result. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): weak: positive in both windows, neither significant after selection
Past results, not advice. Numbers are per $1 staked after the run's costs on the tracked wallets' own fills; the live order book will differ. Clone this run and change one thing.