Big money: 80 %+, $50k+, favourites
by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · done
Study rule: Buy the consensus side once per market (first time all rules hold) when the market has 5+ tracked holders, the side has 80 %+ of the holders by head count, the side's stake (shares x average price of its $100+ holders) is $50,000+, its price is 0.50-0.95, the market ends 1+ h later (price no older than 6 h). Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, core): The most consistent cell of the whole grid: 80 %+, $50k+ stake on the side, price 0.50-0.95: +10.3 % a trade (n 172, CI +2.1..+18.3 %), positive in both windows (+8.6 % / +14.1 %), in-sample +8.5 % and out-of-sample +16.6 %
- Closed trades
- 368
- Mean return / $1
- +3.4 %
- −1.7 % to +8.5 %
- Hit rate vs break-even
- 82 % vs 76 %
- In / out of sample
- +4.3 % / −2.1 %
- 284 / 70 trades
Buy the side 80 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, priced 0.50–0.95 with $50,000+ of their money on it, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window. Over 368 closed trades between Mar 10 2026 and Oct 22 2026 it made 3.4 % per $1 staked (95 % interval −1.7 % to +8.5 %). It won 82 % of its trades and needed 76 % to break even at its entry prices.
The mean is positive, but either the in-sample half is not significant or the out-of-sample half disagrees. Picking the best of many variants produces results like this by chance. Past results, not advice.
Plain consensus, all markets on the same data and period: −2.4 % per $1 over 11,908 trades (−4.1 % to −0.7 %). This rule did 5.9 points better per trade, intervals overlapping.
The numbers
| Per $1 staked, after costs | All | In-sample (to Aug 10 2026) | Out-of-sample (after) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed trades (events) | 368 (291) | 284 (220) | 70 (64) |
| Mean return per trade | +3.4 % | +4.3 % | −2.1 % |
| 95 % interval | −1.7 % to +8.5 % | −1.8 % to +10.4 % | −15.8 % to +11.5 % |
| Hit rate | 81.5 % | 82.0 % | 75.7 % |
| Break-even hit rate | 76.5 % | 76.1 % | 75.8 % |
| P/L at $1 stakes | +$13 | +$12 | −$2 |
| Largest drawdown | $9 | $9 | $6 |
| Most stakes open at once | 71 | 68 | 15 |
| Average entry price | 0.78 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Average hold | 17.0 d | 17.3 d | 42 h |
| p (mean > 0, one-sided) | 0.107 | 0.084 | 0.621 |
Period Mar 10 2026 – Oct 22 2026; markets ending before Oct 15 2026 count; split at Aug 10 2026. 1 position still open at the end of the data is excluded. Interval: cluster bootstrap (events resampled).
Cumulative P/L at $1 stakes
By topic (the 10 most traded)
| Topic | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soccer | 78 | 82 % | +10.8 % | +$8 |
| Geopolitics | 65 | 89 % | +2.6 % | +$2 |
| Esports | 27 | 63 % | −9.9 % | −$3 |
| Finance | 25 | 92 % | −0.6 % | −$0 |
| Crypto | 22 | 86 % | −5.1 % | −$1 |
| MLB | 22 | 68 % | +3.4 % | +$1 |
| NFL | 20 | 65 % | −8.5 % | −$2 |
| NHL | 18 | 83 % | +18.5 % | +$3 |
| Elections | 18 | 89 % | +9.4 % | +$2 |
| NBA | 16 | 63 % | −11.5 % | −$2 |
By entry price
| Price band | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50-0.70 | 116 | 66 % | +8.0 % | +$9 |
| 0.70-0.95 | 236 | 88 % | +1.1 % | +$3 |
| 0.95-1.00 | 16 | 100 % | +4.0 % | +$1 |
By month of entry
| Month | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 89 | — | +1.9 % | +$2 |
| 2026-04 | 111 | — | +9.8 % | +$11 |
| 2026-05 | 34 | — | −7.2 % | −$2 |
| 2026-06 | 36 | — | +7.0 % | +$3 |
| 2026-07 | 24 | — | +4.0 % | +$1 |
| 2026-08 | 14 | — | −30.3 % | −$4 |
| 2026-09 | 10 | — | +0.8 % | +$0 |
| 2026-10 | 50 | — | +6.5 % | +$3 |
Best trades
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks at 0.50 · entered Apr 5 2026 · won+91 %
- Spread: Knicks (-17.5)Nets at 0.50 · entered Mar 20 2026 · won+91 %
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)G2 at 0.50 · entered Jun 19 2026 · won+91 %
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Ciryl Gane at 0.50 · entered Jun 14 2026 · won+91 %
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 46.5Under at 0.50 · entered Oct 11 2026 · won+91 %
Worst trades
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Yes at 0.70 · entered Apr 12 2026 · lost−100 %
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageSpirit at 0.87 · entered Oct 6 2026 · lost−100 %
- Israel closes its airspace by September 30?No at 0.91 · entered Sep 4 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes at 0.73 · entered Aug 20 2026 · lost−100 %
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels at 0.60 · entered Apr 8 2026 · lost−100 %
Read before believing it
- Trying many variants finds lucky ones: the more rules you test, the more of them will look good by chance. A single Promising run is a hypothesis for a paper bot, not a proven edge.
- Returns are per $1 staked, equal stakes, prices from the tracked wallets' own fills (median error about half a cent, more in fast markets), entries and exits at hour boundaries. The live order book will differ.
- The in-sample half is the first 70 % of the period by time, the out-of-sample half the last 30 %; a trade belongs to a half when it was entered in it and its market ended before the half closed.
- Past results, not advice.
- Only the fills of wallets the site tracked, from the day it started tracking them: curated wallets from Mar 10 2026, the leaderboard set from Oct 2 2026. A position a wallet opened before it was tracked is invisible.
- Holders are rebuilt from on-chain fills; the live site also reads Polymarket's position answers, so the live consensus can differ (85–92 % side agreement on tradable markets).
Big money: 80 %+, $50k+, favourites
Study rule: Buy the consensus side once per market (first time all rules hold) when the market has 5+ tracked holders, the side has 80 %+ of the holders by head count, the side's stake (shares x average price of its $100+ holders) is $50,000+, its price is 0.50-0.95, the market ends 1+ h later (price no older than 6 h). Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, core): The most consistent cell of the whole grid: 80 %+, $50k+ stake on the side, price 0.50-0.95: +10.3 % a trade (n 172, CI +2.1..+18.3 %), positive in both windows (+8.6 % / +14.1 %), in-sample +8.5 % and out-of-sample +16.6 %
Past results, not advice. Numbers are per $1 staked after the run's costs on the tracked wallets' own fills; the live order book will differ. Clone this run and change one thing.