Favourites 0.70–0.95, 60 %
by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · done
Study rule: Buy the consensus side once per market (first time all rules hold) when the market has 5+ tracked holders, the side has 60 %+ of the holders by head count, its price is 0.70-0.90, the market ends 1+ h later (price no older than 6 h). Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, core): The consensus' edge over the price is about +2-3 points on favourites (0.70-0.95) in both windows and negative on longshots (below 0.30: -21 to -35 % a trade). Broad version: +0.4 % pooled (n 4,327), +2.0 % Mar-Apr, -0.3 % Oct.
- Closed trades
- 7,272
- Mean return / $1
- +1.4 %
- +0.5 % to +2.3 %
- Hit rate vs break-even
- 87 % vs 85 %
- In / out of sample
- +1.3 % / +1.4 %
- 4,117 / 2,915 trades
Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, priced 0.70–0.95, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window. Over 7,272 closed trades between Mar 10 2026 and Oct 22 2026 it made 1.4 % per $1 staked (95 % interval +0.5 % to +2.3 %). It won 87 % of its trades and needed 85 % to break even at its entry prices.
Positive and significant in the first 70 % of the period, and still positive in the last 30 %. One passing test is a reason to paper-trade, not proof. Past results, not advice.
Plain consensus, all markets on the same data and period: −2.4 % per $1 over 11,908 trades (−4.1 % to −0.7 %). This rule did 3.8 points better per trade, with non-overlapping intervals.
The numbers
| Per $1 staked, after costs | All | In-sample (to Aug 10 2026) | Out-of-sample (after) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed trades (events) | 7,272 (4,577) | 4,117 (2,370) | 2,915 (2,140) |
| Mean return per trade | +1.4 % | +1.3 % | +1.4 % |
| 95 % interval | +0.5 % to +2.3 % | +0.1 % to +2.5 % | −0.1 % to +2.9 % |
| Hit rate | 87.1 % | 87.3 % | 86.8 % |
| Break-even hit rate | 85.2 % | 85.5 % | 84.9 % |
| P/L at $1 stakes | +$102 | +$53 | +$41 |
| Largest drawdown | $23 | $20 | $17 |
| Most stakes open at once | 1044 | 971 | 743 |
| Average entry price | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.84 |
| Average hold | 14.7 d | 19.1 d | 2.4 d |
| p (mean > 0, one-sided) | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.031 |
Period Mar 10 2026 – Oct 22 2026; markets ending before Oct 15 2026 count; split at Aug 10 2026. 26 positions still open at the end of the data are excluded. Interval: cluster-robust normal.
Cumulative P/L at $1 stakes
By topic (the 10 most traded)
| Topic | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 968 | 86 % | +1.5 % | +$15 |
| Crypto | 749 | 94 % | +5.7 % | +$42 |
| Weather | 701 | 83 % | −2.2 % | −$15 |
| Soccer | 666 | 84 % | −0.2 % | −$2 |
| Esports | 662 | 89 % | +4.2 % | +$28 |
| Tennis | 650 | 90 % | +4.6 % | +$30 |
| Elections | 614 | 86 % | −0.5 % | −$3 |
| Mentions | 387 | 86 % | −0.7 % | −$3 |
| Entertainment | 265 | 91 % | +3.6 % | +$10 |
| Finance | 250 | 85 % | −0.9 % | −$2 |
By entry price
| Price band | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70-0.95 | 6,949 | 87 % | +1.5 % | +$102 |
| 0.95-1.00 | 323 | 96 % | +0.1 % | +$0 |
By month of entry
| Month | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1,825 | — | +1.6 % | +$30 |
| 2026-04 | 1,185 | — | +0.9 % | +$10 |
| 2026-05 | 524 | — | +2.3 % | +$12 |
| 2026-06 | 447 | — | +2.2 % | +$10 |
| 2026-07 | 309 | — | +2.2 % | +$7 |
| 2026-08 | 271 | — | −6.6 % | −$18 |
| 2026-09 | 217 | — | +5.5 % | +$12 |
| 2026-10 | 2,494 | — | +1.6 % | +$40 |
Best trades
- Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?No at 0.70 · entered Mar 10 2026 · won+41 %
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No at 0.70 · entered Mar 10 2026 · won+41 %
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No at 0.70 · entered May 27 2026 · won+41 %
- Iran leadership change by March 31?No at 0.70 · entered Mar 10 2026 · won+41 %
- Iran leadership change by May 31?No at 0.70 · entered Mar 26 2026 · won+41 %
Worst trades
- LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality - Game 1 WinnerKT Rolster at 0.72 · entered Oct 11 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 7?No at 0.74 · entered Oct 6 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will Foshan Nanshi FC win on 2026-10-07?No at 0.79 · entered Oct 7 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 7?No at 0.82 · entered Oct 7 2026 · lost−100 %
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on October 7?No at 0.76 · entered Oct 6 2026 · lost−100 %
Read before believing it
- Trying many variants finds lucky ones: the more rules you test, the more of them will look good by chance. A single Promising run is a hypothesis for a paper bot, not a proven edge.
- Returns are per $1 staked, equal stakes, prices from the tracked wallets' own fills (median error about half a cent, more in fast markets), entries and exits at hour boundaries. The live order book will differ.
- The in-sample half is the first 70 % of the period by time, the out-of-sample half the last 30 %; a trade belongs to a half when it was entered in it and its market ended before the half closed.
- Past results, not advice.
- Only the fills of wallets the site tracked, from the day it started tracking them: curated wallets from Mar 10 2026, the leaderboard set from Oct 2 2026. A position a wallet opened before it was tracked is invisible.
- Holders are rebuilt from on-chain fills; the live site also reads Polymarket's position answers, so the live consensus can differ (85–92 % side agreement on tradable markets).
Favourites 0.70–0.95, 60 %
Study rule: Buy the consensus side once per market (first time all rules hold) when the market has 5+ tracked holders, the side has 60 %+ of the holders by head count, its price is 0.70-0.90, the market ends 1+ h later (price no older than 6 h). Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, core): The consensus' edge over the price is about +2-3 points on favourites (0.70-0.95) in both windows and negative on longshots (below 0.30: -21 to -35 % a trade). Broad version: +0.4 % pooled (n 4,327), +2.0 % Mar-Apr, -0.3 % Oct.
Past results, not advice. Numbers are per $1 staked after the run's costs on the tracked wallets' own fills; the live order book will differ. Clone this run and change one thing.