Tennis tour 70 % (fresh price)
by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · done
Study rule: ATP and WTA tour-level tennis matches (not Challenger / ITF / WTA 125), any market of the match: buy the side 70 %+ of the 5+ tracked holders agree on, at any price 0.05-0.95, when a tracked fill in the last 15 minutes gives a current price; no money floor; hold to the result. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): best evidence in the study: positive in both windows (two periods, two wallet universes), survives 2 c and a 1 h delay; fails the multiple-testing guard (22 categories confirmed at once)
- Closed trades
- 315
- Mean return / $1
- +16.3 %
- +4.1 % to +29.3 %
- Hit rate vs break-even
- 74 % vs 52 %
- In / out of sample
- +12.3 % / +25.7 %
- 214 / 99 trades
Buy the side 70 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in ATP/WTA tour tennis markets, at any price (0.05–0.95), priced by a fill from the last 15 minutes, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window. Over 315 closed trades between Mar 10 2026 and Oct 22 2026 it made 16.3 % per $1 staked (95 % interval +4.1 % to +29.3 %). It won 74 % of its trades and needed 52 % to break even at its entry prices.
Positive and significant in the first 70 % of the period, and still positive in the last 30 %. One passing test is a reason to paper-trade, not proof. Past results, not advice.
Plain consensus, all markets on the same data and period: −2.4 % per $1 over 11,908 trades (−4.1 % to −0.7 %). This rule did 18.7 points better per trade, with non-overlapping intervals.
Plain consensus, tour tennis only on the same data and period: +6.8 % per $1 over 583 trades (−1.5 % to +16.0 %). This rule did 9.4 points better per trade, intervals overlapping.
The numbers
| Per $1 staked, after costs | All | In-sample (to Aug 10 2026) | Out-of-sample (after) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed trades (events) | 315 (295) | 214 (203) | 99 (92) |
| Mean return per trade | +16.3 % | +12.3 % | +25.7 % |
| 95 % interval | +4.1 % to +29.3 % | −1.8 % to +26.5 % | −2.2 % to +53.5 % |
| Hit rate | 74.0 % | 73.4 % | 75.8 % |
| Break-even hit rate | 51.8 % | 50.8 % | 53.8 % |
| P/L at $1 stakes | +$51 | +$26 | +$25 |
| Largest drawdown | $6 | $6 | $6 |
| Most stakes open at once | 21 | 20 | 10 |
| Average entry price | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| Average hold | 3.4 d | 3.3 d | 38 h |
| p (mean > 0, one-sided) | 0.008 | 0.045 | 0.037 |
Period Mar 10 2026 – Oct 22 2026; markets ending before Oct 15 2026 count; split at Aug 10 2026. 5 positions still open at the end of the data are excluded. Interval: cluster bootstrap (events resampled).
Cumulative P/L at $1 stakes
By topic (the 10 most traded)
| Topic | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis | 315 | 74 % | +16.3 % | +$51 |
By entry price
| Price band | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05-0.30 | 27 | 30 % | +70.0 % | +$19 |
| 0.30-0.50 | 54 | 56 % | +42.5 % | +$23 |
| 0.50-0.70 | 61 | 64 % | +1.8 % | +$1 |
| 0.70-0.95 | 167 | 90 % | +4.9 % | +$8 |
| 0.95-1.00 | 6 | 100 % | +4.0 % | +$0 |
By month of entry
| Month | Trades | Hit | Mean / $1 | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 79 | — | −4.3 % | −$3 |
| 2026-04 | 95 | — | +34.6 % | +$33 |
| 2026-05 | 29 | — | −5.3 % | −$2 |
| 2026-06 | 8 | — | +15.8 % | +$1 |
| 2026-07 | 4 | — | −61.0 % | −$2 |
| 2026-08 | 25 | — | +59.8 % | +$15 |
| 2026-09 | 13 | — | −12.1 % | −$2 |
| 2026-10 | 62 | — | +17.8 % | +$11 |
Best trades
- Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Yes at 0.07 · entered Aug 21 2026 · won+1095 %
- Madrid Open, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Martin DammMartin Damm at 0.08 · entered Apr 21 2026 · won+963 %
- Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Karolina Pliskova vs Aliaksandra SasnovichKarolina Pliskova at 0.19 · entered Apr 7 2026 · won+381 %
- Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi ZhouYi Zhou at 0.23 · entered Oct 7 2026 · won+301 %
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Juan Manuel CerundoloValentin Vacherot at 0.24 · entered Apr 6 2026 · won+286 %
Worst trades
- Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van AsscheLuca Van Assche at 0.82 · entered Apr 3 2026 · lost−100 %
- US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas MachacTomas Machac at 0.39 · entered Aug 30 2026 · lost−100 %
- Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub MensikTitouan Droguet at 0.20 · entered May 24 2026 · lost−100 %
- Miami Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Miomir KecmanovicMiomir Kecmanovic at 0.63 · entered Mar 19 2026 · lost−100 %
- Miami Open: Reilly Opelka vs Nuno BorgesNuno Borges at 0.41 · entered Mar 19 2026 · lost−100 %
Read before believing it
- Trying many variants finds lucky ones: the more rules you test, the more of them will look good by chance. A single Promising run is a hypothesis for a paper bot, not a proven edge.
- Returns are per $1 staked, equal stakes, prices from the tracked wallets' own fills (median error about half a cent, more in fast markets), entries and exits at hour boundaries. The live order book will differ.
- The in-sample half is the first 70 % of the period by time, the out-of-sample half the last 30 %; a trade belongs to a half when it was entered in it and its market ended before the half closed.
- Past results, not advice.
- Only the fills of wallets the site tracked, from the day it started tracking them: curated wallets from Mar 10 2026, the leaderboard set from Oct 2 2026. A position a wallet opened before it was tracked is invisible.
- Holders are rebuilt from on-chain fills; the live site also reads Polymarket's position answers, so the live consensus can differ (85–92 % side agreement on tradable markets).
Tennis tour 70 % (fresh price)
Study rule: ATP and WTA tour-level tennis matches (not Challenger / ITF / WTA 125), any market of the match: buy the side 70 %+ of the 5+ tracked holders agree on, at any price 0.05-0.95, when a tracked fill in the last 15 minutes gives a current price; no money floor; hold to the result. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): best evidence in the study: positive in both windows (two periods, two wallet universes), survives 2 c and a 1 h delay; fails the multiple-testing guard (22 categories confirmed at once)
Past results, not advice. Numbers are per $1 staked after the run's costs on the tracked wallets' own fills; the live order book will differ. Clone this run and change one thing.