Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold FC Mito Holly Hock (67%) · FC Mito Holly Hock at 75¢ · $148 held · ended Oct 25
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Neutral
FC Mito Holly Hock
3
FC Mito Holly Hock 67%
$147.54
$1.03
76.2¢ → 75¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Mito Holly Hock at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | FC Mito Holly Hockavg 73.9¢ | $78.24 | $84.71 | +$4.35 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
FO foooool<$100 | FC Mito Holly Hockavg 80¢ | $50 | $46.88 | -$3.13 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | FC Tōkyōavg 25.3¢ | $16.15 | $15.95 | -$0.2 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.