Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (20%) · Thunder at 54¢ · $980 held · ends Oct 25

Thunder54¢Clippers46¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 20%

Total Value

$979.59

Combined PnL

$1.45

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder54%

Clippers47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder1 trader

Total Value$561.36

Total Shares1,049

Combined PnL+$2.17

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$418.2

Total Shares856

Combined PnL-$0.72

Thunder — 20%Clippers — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Thunderavg 53.3¢	$559.19	$561.36	+$2.17	53% 302-271 (573)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Clippersavg 47¢	$285.06	$285.06	-$0	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$75.41	$75.41	-$0	47% 1955-2177 (4132)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Clippersavg 48.7¢	$53.75	$53.03	-$0.72	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.7	-$0	55% 6317-5068 (11385)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Thunder

Invested

$559.19

Value

$561.36

PnL

+$2.17

Record

53%

302-271 (573)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Clippers

Invested

$285.06

Value

$285.06

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$75.41

Value

$75.41

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1955-2177 (4132)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$53.75

Value

$53.03

PnL

-$0.72

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

6317-5068 (11385)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.